Market Quick Take - 31 March 2025

Market Quick Take - 31 March 2025

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo Strategy Team

Market Quick Take – 31 March 2025


Market drivers and catalysts

  • Equities: US futures down; tariffs looming; inflation worries; Europe/Asia stocks sharply lower
  • Volatility: VIX jumps significantly; high anxiety before Trump tariffs and major data releases
  • Digital Assets: Cryptos slightly down; XRP notably weaker; cautious investor sentiment; accumulation trends emerging
  • Currencies: With global yields in a fresh plunge, the JPY coming out on top.
  • Fixed Income: Global yield plunge on weak risk appetite ahead of Trump tariff announcements
  • Commodities: Gold rally extends above USD 3100, Grain traders await key planting report
  • Macro events: Germany Flash Mar. CPI, US Mar. Chicago PMI

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.


Macro data and headlines

  • President Trump said he plans to start his reciprocal tariff push with all major trading partners, thereby reducing speculation the recent market turmoil would limit the initial scope of tariffs set to be unveiled on Wednesday, 2 April.
  • The University of Michigan’s final March reading of consumer sentiment fell to 57.0 due to economic concerns. Inflation expectations rose, with year-ahead expectations at 5.0% and long-run expectations at 4.1%. Consumer anxiety remains high amid tariff uncertainty, worsening labor-market outlooks, with future expectations falling to a 2022 low at 52.6.
  • US consumer spending in February was weaker than expected while the Fed’s preferred inflation metric rose 0.4% from January, with the core PCE price index rising 2.8% YoY, versus 2.7% expected.
  • China’s manufacturing activity expanded in March, with the official PMI index at 50.5, while the construction and services sectors rose to 50.8, higher than the forecast of 50.6.
  • Goldman Sachs forecast the Fed and ECB will cut interest rates three more times this year due to Trump's tariffs weighing on economic growth. They predict the Fed will cut rates in July, September, and November, and the ECB will cut rates in April, June, and July.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany Feb Import Prices & Retail Sales
0830 – UK Feb Mortgage Approvals
1200 – Germany Flash Mar CPI
1345 – MNI Chicago PMI
1600 – USDA Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks
2330 – Japan Feb. Jobless Rate
2350 – Japan Q1 Tankan Manufacturing and Services Surveys

Earnings events

  • Thursday: Constellation Brands, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings 

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.


Equities

  • US: US futures fell Monday, extending last week's sharp losses as markets braced for President Trump's 'Liberation Day' on April 2, when a 25% tariff on imported cars and reciprocal trade duties will take effect. The S&P 500 closed -1.97% at 5,580.94 on Friday, marking its largest one-day decline since March 10. Inflation concerns persist as core PCE prices rose above expectations (+2.8%), and consumer inflation expectations hit multi-year highs. Major tech stocks, notably Amazon (-4.3%) and Microsoft (-3.0%), dragged markets lower. Earnings from PVH, Restoration Hardware, and Constellation Brands are in focus this week.
  • Europe: European markets are set to start sharply lower Monday amid increasing trade tensions ahead of Trump's tariffs. FTSE 100 expected -41 pts, DAX -141 pts, CAC 40 -54 pts, and FTSE MIB -371 pts. On Friday, DAX closed -0.96%, pressured by weak German labor market data. CAC 40 closed -0.93%, dragged by auto stocks (Stellantis -3.79%, Renault -3.75%). Inflation data from Spain and France softened slightly, but tariff fears continue to dominate investor sentiment across Europe.
  • Asia: Asian markets saw steep declines on Monday amid escalating US-China trade tensions and fears of broader tariffs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged -3.9%, South Korea's KOSPI -2.6%, and Australia’s ASX 200 fell -1.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid -1.75%, despite strong Chinese PMI data. Tech and auto stocks suffered heavily, extending last week's losses. China's CSI300 and Shanghai Composite each dropped around -1%, weighed by persistent concerns about Trump's anticipated reciprocal tariffs.


Volatility

Market volatility surged, with VIX jumping nearly 16% on Friday to close at 21.65, driven by heightened anxiety over Trump's tariff announcement and stubborn inflation data. VIX futures (VX1!) rose sharply (+5.81% at 22.20), signaling further anticipated turbulence ahead of a data-heavy week and Trump's 'Liberation Day'. Elevated short-term volatility indicators (VIX1D +49%, VIX9D +13.28%) underscore strong investor caution.


Digital Assets

Cryptocurrency markets weakened as traders remain cautious ahead of Trump's tariffs. Bitcoin fell slightly to $82,102 (-0.3%), Ethereum slipped to $1,805 (-0.1%), and XRP dropped notably by -2.14%. Crypto-related stocks also suffered, with Coinbase down -7.8%, Marathon Digital -8.58%, and MicroStrategy -10.8%. Analysts noted seasoned market participants shifting from selling to accumulation, signaling medium-term bullish sentiment despite short-term headwinds.


Fixed Income

US Treasury yields plunged all along the yield curve on Friday despite the stronger than expected core PCE data for February as a powerful bout of risk aversion settled over markets. Yields dropped further in the Asian session to start the week as the market fears the impact of the Trump tariff announcements later this week. The 2-year US Treasury benchmark trades near the lows since last October at 3.85% this morning after trading above 4.0% midweek last week as the market prices more Fed easing this year and the 10-year US Treasury benchmark has plunged some 20 basis points from the multi week high of last Thursday, trading 4.20% this morning.

Japanese bond yields fell sharply overnight, with the 10-year JGB benchmark falling some 4.5 basis points to near 1-month lows around 1.50% after falling sharply on Friday as well. Japan’s growth outlook is also under pressure from Trump’s threatened tariffs.


Commodities

  • Crude trades lower despite Trump threatening “secondary tariffs” on buyers of Russian oil if Putin refuses a ceasefire with Ukraine, with the focus instead on the potential damaging impact on demand from a global trade war.
  • Gold’s continued rally highlights an ongoing worry across global financial markets, and overnight bullion broke above USD 3,100 as Treasury yields plunged (see above), thereby recording a year-to-date rally of 18%. Gold miners offering operational leverage to gold price upside have been strong outperformers in 2025, with an ETF tracking the major miners showing a year-to-date return of 35%.
  • Silver’s year-to-date performance remains on par with gold, as the white metal continues to be seen as the alternative, despite some weakness emerging across industrial metals—notably copper, which has reversed sharply lower after the dash to ship the metal to the US ahead of possible tariffs ended.
  • Grain and soybean traders await today’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports from the USDA. Corn fell to a three-month low on Friday on expectations of increased acreage allocation, while wheat slumped to a nearly eight-month low on sluggish demand.

Currencies

  • With collapsing bond yields around the world on Friday and to kick off this week today, it is no surprise to see the low-yielding Japanese yen coming out on top, as USDJPY has retreated all the way to 149.00 after briefly trading solidly below that level overnight. This after Friday’s intraday high of 151.21, but still far from the low posted in March at 146.54.
  • The US dollar has also turned lower versus the euro since last Thursday’s 1.0733 low, as EURUSD rose to close last week at 1.0828 and rising slightly more in the Asian session overnight.
  • Weak risk sentiment is seeing weakness in many of the pro-cyclical currencies, from the commodity dollars CAD, AUD and NZD, to a currency like the Mexican peso, which is eyeing the impact of coming Trump tariffs.


For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.