Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
0600 – Germany Feb Import Prices & Retail Sales
0830 – UK Feb Mortgage Approvals
1200 – Germany Flash Mar CPI
1345 – MNI Chicago PMI
1600 – USDA Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks
2330 – Japan Feb. Jobless Rate
2350 – Japan Q1 Tankan Manufacturing and Services Surveys
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Volatility
Market volatility surged, with VIX jumping nearly 16% on Friday to close at 21.65, driven by heightened anxiety over Trump's tariff announcement and stubborn inflation data. VIX futures (VX1!) rose sharply (+5.81% at 22.20), signaling further anticipated turbulence ahead of a data-heavy week and Trump's 'Liberation Day'. Elevated short-term volatility indicators (VIX1D +49%, VIX9D +13.28%) underscore strong investor caution.
Cryptocurrency markets weakened as traders remain cautious ahead of Trump's tariffs. Bitcoin fell slightly to $82,102 (-0.3%), Ethereum slipped to $1,805 (-0.1%), and XRP dropped notably by -2.14%. Crypto-related stocks also suffered, with Coinbase down -7.8%, Marathon Digital -8.58%, and MicroStrategy -10.8%. Analysts noted seasoned market participants shifting from selling to accumulation, signaling medium-term bullish sentiment despite short-term headwinds.
Fixed Income
US Treasury yields plunged all along the yield curve on Friday despite the stronger than expected core PCE data for February as a powerful bout of risk aversion settled over markets. Yields dropped further in the Asian session to start the week as the market fears the impact of the Trump tariff announcements later this week. The 2-year US Treasury benchmark trades near the lows since last October at 3.85% this morning after trading above 4.0% midweek last week as the market prices more Fed easing this year and the 10-year US Treasury benchmark has plunged some 20 basis points from the multi week high of last Thursday, trading 4.20% this morning.
Japanese bond yields fell sharply overnight, with the 10-year JGB benchmark falling some 4.5 basis points to near 1-month lows around 1.50% after falling sharply on Friday as well. Japan’s growth outlook is also under pressure from Trump’s threatened tariffs.
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