COT report: Ongoing USD selling amid mixed week for commodities

COT report: Ongoing USD selling amid mixed week for commodities

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points:

  • Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 25 March, 2025.
  • A tenth consecutive week of dollar selling driven by demand for GBP, EUR and CAD
  • In commodities, the major changes were continued buying of energy, selling of grains, and temporary profit taking across precious metals


Forex:

In the forex market, the USD, despite a temporary rebound, still faced a 10th consecutive week of broad selling from speculators in the futures market. Overall, the gross USD short position against eight IMM futures reached a five-month high at USD 2.7 billion, down from a mid-January long of USD 29 billion, with buying in the latest reporting week of GBP, EUR, and CAD only partially offset by selling of CHF and AUD.

Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions versus the dollar in week to 25 March 2025

Commodities:

In commodities, mixed activities were seen across the different sectors during a week that saw the Bloomberg Commodities index trade near unchanged with gains among industrial metals and softs being offset by profit taking in precious metals, and continued selling of grains, with the energy holding steady with a drop in natural gas being offset by gains in crude and fuel products. 

The major changes made by hedge funds were continued buying of energy, led by Brent and diesel, and profit-taking across precious metals in response to a temporary recovery in the dollar and stocks. Copper’s arbitrage-driven rally boosted the net long while aggressive and broad selling of the grain market continued ahead of today’s key planting and stock reports from the USDA. On an individual level, the contracts in demand were Brent, gas oil, copper, sugar, and cattle, while sellers concentrated their focus on natural gas, platinum, gold, soybeans, and corn.

Energy: Crude oil saw net buying for a third week, lifting the net across the three major contracts (ICE and CME WTI, as well as ICE Brent) to 329k contracts, primarily driven by a second week of Brent buying. Elsewhere, the natural gas long continued to deflate following a recent drop back to USD 4 per MMBtu, while the diesel contracts in London and New York saw short covering.

Metals: A temporary, as it turned out, correction across precious metals helped trigger reductions in gold and silver net longs, primarily driven by long liquidation with limited appetite to hold short positions. With gold and silver stealing all the thunder, platinum was left reeling after a 4.6% correction triggered a 76% reduction in the net long. The white metal trades at a record discount to gold despite tightening market conditions, recently made worse by a rush of shipments to the USA ahead of potential tariffs. HG copper’s arbitrage-led price surge drove a 50% increase in the net long to 33.6k contracts; however, it is worth noting the bulk of the change was driven by short covering and not fresh longs.

Agriculture: Led by aggressive selling of CME corn futures, speculators in the grain market continue to lose hope for a rebound. Over the last five weeks, hedge funds sold a combined 518k contracts across the six major grain and soybean contracts, the most aggressive pace of selling since 2018, with the bulk being a 279k contract reduction in the corn net long from a three-year high to just 75k. In wheat, a combination of improved crop conditions and sluggish export sales continues to attract sellers with short positions held in both the CME and Kansas contracts. Elsewhere across the agricultural sector, the sugar long jumped to a three-month high while sellers returned to cotton, thereby keeping the net short near record levels.

 

Managed money commodities long, short and net positions, as well as changes in the week to 25 March
Energy
Precious and industrial metals
Grains and oilseed futures
Softs

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.


Recent commodity articles:

21 Mch 2025: Commodities weekly: High-flying precious metal sees profit taking
19 Mch 2025: 
Has the gold express already left the station?
17 Mch 2025: 
COT Report: Silver and copper stands out in week of energy weakness
14 Mch 2025: 
Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows
12 Mch 2025: 
Tariffs and the energy transition: Key drivers of copper demand
11 Mch 2025: 
Gold holds steady despite deleveraging risks in volatile markets
10 Mch 2025: 
COT Report: Wholesale reductions in speculators' USD and commodity longs
7 Mch 2025: 
Commodities Weekly: Tariffs, trade tensions, fiscal bazooka, and Ukraine
5 Mch 2025: 
Tariff threat disconnects HG copper from global market
4 Mch 2025: 
Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold
3 Mch 2025: 
COT Report: Broad retreat sees WTI longs slump to 15-year low
28 Feb 2025: 
Commodities weekly: Broad weakness as tariff fatigue sets in
24 Feb 2025: 
COT Report: traders turn selective despite ongoing broad rally
21 Feb 2025: 
Commodities weekly: energy market strength and Trump rethoric fuel surge
18 Feb 2025: 
COT report: crude, gold and grains see mild profit taking
5 Feb 2025: 
Broad Strength Drives Commodities sector to 26-month High
4 Feb 2025: 
Crude Oil Wipes Out 2025 Gains as Tariffs and Demand Weighs
3 Feb 2025: 
COT Report: Mixed Week Seen Ahead of Trump's Tariff Offensive
1 Feb 2025: 
YouTube: Joining Kevin Muir on The Market Huddle podcast


Podcasts that include commodities focus:

18 Mch 2025: 
US market found support, but how durable will it be?
14 Mch 2025:
 Is silver set to shoot the lights out?
10 Mch 2025: 
US un-exceptionalism is the theme
7 Mch 2025: 
US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station
4 March 2025: 
Are we on the verge of a big whoosh?
25 Feb 2025: 
Meltdown risks are rising. What to watch next
18 Feb 2025: 
Europe is on fire
5 Feb 2025: 
Mag 7 risks underappreciated? 
3 Feb 2025: 
If new Trump tariffs stick, markets have only just begun to react
31 Jan 2025: 
Does the market think Trump is bluffing?
29 Jan 2025: 
The DeepSeek winners emerge
27 Jan 2025: 
DeepSeeking missile strikes global markets
24 Jan 2025: 
Four days in, Trump continues to dominate headlines, but ...
20 Jan 2025: 
Trump 2.0 swings into action
17 Jan 2025:
 Brace for Monday, as a new era begins

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.