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COT report: Ongoing USD selling amid mixed week for commodities
Commodities
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Key points:
- Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 25 March, 2025.
- A tenth consecutive week of dollar selling driven by demand for GBP, EUR and CAD
- In commodities, the major changes were continued buying of energy, selling of grains, and temporary profit taking across precious metals
Forex:
In the forex market, the USD, despite a temporary rebound, still faced a 10th consecutive week of broad selling from speculators in the futures market. Overall, the gross USD short position against eight IMM futures reached a five-month high at USD 2.7 billion, down from a mid-January long of USD 29 billion, with buying in the latest reporting week of GBP, EUR, and CAD only partially offset by selling of CHF and AUD.
Commodities:
In commodities, mixed activities were seen across the different sectors during a week that saw the Bloomberg Commodities index trade near unchanged with gains among industrial metals and softs being offset by profit taking in precious metals, and continued selling of grains, with the energy holding steady with a drop in natural gas being offset by gains in crude and fuel products. Energy: Crude oil saw net buying for a third week, lifting the net across the three major contracts (ICE and CME WTI, as well as ICE Brent) to 329k contracts, primarily driven by a second week of Brent buying. Elsewhere, the natural gas long continued to deflate following a recent drop back to USD 4 per MMBtu, while the diesel contracts in London and New York saw short covering. Metals: A temporary, as it turned out, correction across precious metals helped trigger reductions in gold and silver net longs, primarily driven by long liquidation with limited appetite to hold short positions. With gold and silver stealing all the thunder, platinum was left reeling after a 4.6% correction triggered a 76% reduction in the net long. The white metal trades at a record discount to gold despite tightening market conditions, recently made worse by a rush of shipments to the USA ahead of potential tariffs. HG copper’s arbitrage-led price surge drove a 50% increase in the net long to 33.6k contracts; however, it is worth noting the bulk of the change was driven by short covering and not fresh longs. Agriculture: Led by aggressive selling of CME corn futures, speculators in the grain market continue to lose hope for a rebound. Over the last five weeks, hedge funds sold a combined 518k contracts across the six major grain and soybean contracts, the most aggressive pace of selling since 2018, with the bulk being a 279k contract reduction in the corn net long from a three-year high to just 75k. In wheat, a combination of improved crop conditions and sluggish export sales continues to attract sellers with short positions held in both the CME and Kansas contracts. Elsewhere across the agricultural sector, the sugar long jumped to a three-month high while sellers returned to cotton, thereby keeping the net short near record levels.
The major changes made by hedge funds were continued buying of energy, led by Brent and diesel, and profit-taking across precious metals in response to a temporary recovery in the dollar and stocks. Copper’s arbitrage-driven rally boosted the net long while aggressive and broad selling of the grain market continued ahead of today’s key planting and stock reports from the USDA. On an individual level, the contracts in demand were Brent, gas oil, copper, sugar, and cattle, while sellers concentrated their focus on natural gas, platinum, gold, soybeans, and corn.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)
The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:
- They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
- This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
- It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.
Recent commodity articles:
21 Mch 2025: Commodities weekly: High-flying precious metal sees profit taking
19 Mch 2025: Has the gold express already left the station?
17 Mch 2025: COT Report: Silver and copper stands out in week of energy weakness
14 Mch 2025: Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows
12 Mch 2025: Tariffs and the energy transition: Key drivers of copper demand
11 Mch 2025: Gold holds steady despite deleveraging risks in volatile markets
10 Mch 2025: COT Report: Wholesale reductions in speculators' USD and commodity longs
7 Mch 2025: Commodities Weekly: Tariffs, trade tensions, fiscal bazooka, and Ukraine
5 Mch 2025: Tariff threat disconnects HG copper from global market
4 Mch 2025: Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold
3 Mch 2025: COT Report: Broad retreat sees WTI longs slump to 15-year low
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21 Feb 2025: Commodities weekly: energy market strength and Trump rethoric fuel surge
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5 Feb 2025: Broad Strength Drives Commodities sector to 26-month High
4 Feb 2025: Crude Oil Wipes Out 2025 Gains as Tariffs and Demand Weighs
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Podcasts that include commodities focus:
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