Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
For daily technical updates on FX: Cramers Corner Daily Technical Update or my Youtube channel Cramer's Corner YouTube
USDJPY is slowly ticking higher towards the 2.00 projection of the March correction at 155.29, as illustrated by the two vertical arrows.
However, a bullish move up to 156.36, which is the 1.382 projection of the November-December correction, should not be ruled out.
The RSI is showing positive sentiment but with minor divergence, indicating the USDJPY uptrend is getting close to exhaustion.
A close below 152 will negate the bullish scenario. A break below 153.50 and a close below the lower rising trendline is likely to be the first warning of a bearish correction scenario to play out
EURJPY is testing key resistance at around 165.35.
A daily close above, combined with a daily close on the RSI above the 60 threshold, is likely to result in a bullish move to 166-168.
If RSI is closing above both the 60 threshold and above its falling trendline, it will strengthen the bullish picture.
Failing to close above 165.35, EURJPY is stuck range-bound between 165.35-162.30.
AUDJPY is testing key resistance at 100.02. A close above is needed for further upside potential. If that scenario plays out, a bullish move to 100.81 is likely, with upside potential to 101.97.
No RSI divergence is supporting a bullish move in EURJPY, and a daily close back above 60 will confirm that picture.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)