Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Chief Investment Strategist
The carry trade, a popular strategy in the forex market, involves borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency to invest in higher-yielding assets. For years, the Japanese yen has been a cornerstone of this strategy due to Japan's persistently low interest rates. However, when market conditions shift, this strategy can unravel, leading to a "carry unwind," which has profound implications for the yen and global markets.
Carry trades can be highly profitable in stable market conditions, but they are vulnerable to shifts in risk sentiment or changes in interest rate differentials. When investors anticipate a downturn or escalating geopolitical risks, they become risk-averse and unwind these trades by selling higher-yielding assets and buying back the funding currency, in this case, the yen. This sudden demand for yen can lead to its sharp appreciation. As the yen appreciates, other traders may also decide to unwind their positions to avoid further losses, creating a feedback loop that accelerates the yen's rise.
Carry trades often involve high leverage. When the trades start to unwind, the need to cover positions can result in a rapid and large-scale buying of the yen, pushing its value up sharply. This is often called a Squeeze.
During the 2008 financial crisis, the carry unwind played out dramatically. As global markets tumbled, investors fled risky assets and repatriated funds to safer currencies. The yen, benefiting from this flight to safety, appreciated significantly against other currencies. This rapid appreciation exacerbated global market turmoil, as the sudden strengthening of the yen hurt Japanese exporters and added to the financial stress worldwide.
Countries like Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia pegged their currencies to the US dollar, making their exports competitive and attracting carry traders. When the US dollar strengthened, these countries had to sell off their foreign currency reserves to maintain the peg. As conditions worsened, investors pulled out, betting against these currencies, leading to their collapse. The IMF intervened, providing loans in exchange for economic reforms, but the crisis left lasting impacts on these economies.
Russia’s status as a commodity superpower, and the high yields this can generate, has made the Rouble popular in carry trades, at least until the Ukraine invasion.
In 1998, the Russian ruble faced a severe crisis. Speculators betting against the ruble forced the Russian government to spend $6 billion of its reserves to maintain its peg to the US dollar. Coupled with plummeting commodity prices and poor tax revenue, Russia's debt exceeded 40% of its tax income. As investors fled, the ruble had to be devalued, leading to a massive financial crisis, soaring inflation, and social unrest.
In January 2015, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly removed the Swiss franc's peg to the euro, which had been in place since 2011 to prevent the franc from appreciating too much. The sudden move caused the franc to surge by almost 30% against the euro within minutes. This abrupt appreciation wreaked havoc on global markets, causing significant losses for investors and businesses that had borrowed in francs or held significant Swiss franc positions. The removal of the peg led to an unwinding of carry trades as investors rushed to cover their positions, resulting in severe volatility in currency markets.
In the early 2010s, the Turkish lira became a favorite for carry trades, especially among investors with US dollars. The US Federal Reserve had slashed interest rates to near zero, while Turkey's economy was booming, making the lira very appealing. However, political instability and economic mismanagement by the Turkish government, including heavy-handed tactics by Prime Minister Erdogan and interference in fiscal policies, led to a series of crises. In 2018, the lira depreciated significantly as investors lost confidence, resulting in a massive carry trade unwind. The Turkish central bank's attempts to control inflation by adjusting interest rates failed to stabilize the currency, leading to further economic turmoil and high inflation.
In the current market, signs of a carry unwind are emerging once again. Several factors contribute to this development:
The unwinding of carry trades involving the yen can have several significant impacts on global markets:
In conclusion, the carry unwind in the Japanese yen is a critical event with far-reaching implications. Understanding its mechanics and historical context helps investors and policymakers navigate the potential turbulence in global markets. As signs of another unwind emerge, staying attuned to interest rate policies, geopolitical developments, and economic data will be crucial in anticipating and responding to market shifts.
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