Global Market Quick Take: Asia – May 2, 2024

Equities: US stocks were choppy but ended lower following the Fed’s announcement and a slew of economic data out of the US pointing to broad weakness. However, US equity futures are pointing higher with Fed Chair Powell still ruling out the prospect of a rate hike, which meant he didn’t meet the high hawkish bar that the market had set for him, and QT tapering announcement surprised dovish.

Chip stocks lagged with AMD down 9% after its disappointing AI chip sales forecast, while Super Micro Computer slid 14.0% following the company's quarterly revenue miss. Amazon was up 2.2% on better-than-expected quarterly results as interest in AI helped drive cloud-computing growth, while Qualcomm rose 4% in after-market on stronger-than-expected guidance on smartphone recovery. Meanwhile, Starbucks tumbled 15.9% after the coffee chain cut its sales forecast as it posted the first drop in same-store sales in nearly three years. Apple earnings on tap today, along with Danish obesity drugs leader Novo Nordisk.

Japan markets plunged at the open in Asia, slipping back below 38k as yen strengthened on suspected intervention. China markets will be closed for Golden Week and return on Monday.

FX: Dollar pushed lower as Fed Chair Powell could not clear the high hawkish bar we had highlighted in the FOMC preview and the Saxo Market Call earlier this week. Still, the path for a second round of Japanese intervention was cleared as USDJPY hovered near 158, and the last few minutes of NY trading saw the pair plunge sharply lower to 153 in a suspected intervention move. The move, once again, has all the hallmarks of an intervention, given the timing of thin liquidity and an eventual 5-yen drop, but pair is back above 155.50 now. Fading of the yen strength could likely be quicker now after the two suspected Japanese intervention clearing out speculators for now. AUDUSD also rose to 0.6540 after a sharp drop to 0.6465 given the miss in retail sales we highlighted in our FX note. 100DMA at 0.6584 is still likely to cap AUDUSD and the move in AUDNZD to 1.10+ remains at risk of reversal. GBPUSD was the underperformer, given the weak equity sentiment and 200DMA at 1.2550 providing resistance. USDCAD moved lower towards 1.3720 with Bank of Canada Governor Macklem’s comments still hinting at a rate cut coming soon.

Commodities: After some erosion in geopolitical premium, now demand concerns came into limelight for oil traders as EIA data showed a surge in crude stockpiles and Fed Chair Powell hinted at the delay in starting the easing cycle. WTI dropped below $80/barrel to levels seen in mid-March, and Brent was below $84. Gold and silver rebounded, in a relief move as the Fed meeting outcome didn’t meet the high hawkish bar and the next move is still seen to be a rate cut. However, base metals came under pressure, with copper in correction after touching 2-year highs earlier this week.

Fixed income: Treasuries rose (yields fell) with the Fed not meeting the high hawkish bar, US data mostly disappointing - from ISM manufacturing to JOLTS – and the QRA mostly uneventful. The Fed’s QT taper announcement held more weight for the bond market, and that came in somewhat more than expected while the next move is still seen as a rate cut.

Macro:

• The Fed left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected, whilst also confirming the announcement of the QT taper.
  • Chair Powell acknowledged the lack of progress on inflation but did not put a rate hike back on the table. He said that future moves remained skewed to rate cuts, even though cuts have been delayed and the bar has been raised. Powell said a rate hike remains unlikely, when asked, alleviating some hawkish risks that Powell may open up a more two-sided policy debate at this meeting.
  • On the QT taper, the Fed announced it is to taper its QT run-off to just USD 25bln a month from USD 60bln, slightly more dovish than the expected USD 30bln, whilst also maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at USD 35bln.
• US JOLTS jobs openings in March fell to 8.488mln from the prior, revised lower, 8.813mln and beneath the consensus of 8.686mln which highlighted demand for workers continues to ease, with the headline metric declining to the lowest level in more than three years. Quits rate also fell to 2.1% from 2.2%, its lowest since August 2020, pointing to slower wage growth in the months ahead. There were 1.3 vacancies for every unemployed worker in March, the lowest since August 2021.
• US ISM Manufacturing fell back into contractionary territory in April as it dipped to 49.2 from 50.3. ISM Manufacturing fell back into contractionary territory in April as it dipped to 49.2 from 50.3, once again sending stagflation fears.
• US headline ADP jobs rose by 192k in April, above the 175k forecast but it did ease from the prior revised up 208k (initially 184k, however). Focus shifts to NFP data due on Friday, and wage pressures will be on watch to assess inflation trajectory from here.

Macro events: Chinese Market Holiday (Labor Day), Swiss CPI (Apr), EZ Manufacturing Final PMI (Apr), US Durable Goods (Apr)

Earnings: Novo Nordisk, Linde, Booking, Apple, Amgen, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Cigna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, National Australia Bank, Macquarie Group, Vestas, Mærsk, Ørsted, Genmab, Pandora, Universal Music, ING, ArcelorMittal, Coinbase, Fortinet, Block, Moderna, Cloudflare, Standard Chartered, Shell

News:

• Qualcomm forecast beats estimates as AI drives chip sales in China (Reuters)
• Apple set for big sales decline as investors await AI in iPhones (Reuters)
• DoorDash disappoints Wall Street with downbeat quarterly core profit (Reuters)
• Hong Kong’s Stock Rally Faces Test With China Inflows on Pause (Bloomberg)
• DBS Profit Beats Estimates on Higher Lending, Wealth Fees Growth (Bloomberg)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.