The road to Christmas is now visible as we move into the final month of 2024. Gold has been choppy and now traders ponder if the precious metal can manage its 8th consecutive Santa Rally this December. Trump continues to send ripples through markets with appointments to his administration and tariff news. US data was broadly in line and Treasury yields have moved lower. Crypto continues to hold stage and down under the RBNZ cut rates by 50bps. More below on this week’s key stories.
Tariff turmoil
The prospect of US tariffs and countries and products they may be applied to continues to cause substantial price volatility for exposed instruments. US President-elect Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one of his new administration in January and threatened a further 10% tariff on all products from China. CAD and MXN were sent sharply weaker, with USDCAD running up above 1.4150 to new multi-year highs. The tariffs threat and strong USD weighed on most Asian markets. General Motors shares plunged nearly 9% as proposed tariff hikes targets US supply chain trading partners.
Tariff Strategy: 'The issue is quite complex'
French budget battle
Ongoing budget considerations in France made it a tumultuous week for country’s sovereign debt market. A measure of French bond risk rose to levels last seen during the euro-area debt crisis with the standoff over the proposed budget carrying the possibility it will bring down the government. Prime Minister Michel Barnier said the country faces a “storm” in financial markets should that happen. French sovereign yields fell away from mid-week highs after Barnier made a significant budget concession to secure National Rally’s support for the spending bill on Thursday 28th Nov, a move welcomed by investors.
European Fixed Update
Dollar-Yen reversal
The yen has made some ground this week and reversed some of the October/November weakness. The dollar played its part as it gapped lower on news Trump will pick Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary. Trumps tariff threats also opened the door for the Yen to gain on haven buying. The next BoJ rate decision is on the 19th of December, and speculation is mounting with swaps pricing 15bps of rate increases. Yen strength was supported further on Thursday as Tokyo inflation numbers came in higher than expected. USDJPY was the most traded FX pair at Saxo this week by a long shot and interest in Japan 225 index was also bolstered.
Yen hits 1-month high
Next week brings US Jobs data which covers JOLTS (Tues) ADP (Weds), Jobless Claims (Thurs) and Non-farm payrolls (Friday). Other key economic data comes from US and European PMIs released across Monday-Wednesday. FED Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Legarde are both speaking on Wednesday while oil traders will watch the latest OPEC+ ministerial meeting which is due to be held on 5th Dec. The earnings highlights include Zscaler (Mon). Salesforce, Marvell Technology (Tues). Bank of Canada, Dollar Tree, Chewy (Weds). Toronto Dominion Bank, Lululemon (Thurs).
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