Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Macro Dragon: US back in on Tues, Flash PMIs & Turkey Rate Cuts Week
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Daily Cross Asset Views. Today we re-highlight the wk ahead; noting the US does not get back in until Tues. the wk will be dominated by a focus on flash PMIs globally, as well as a number of key inflation figures. Central bank wise, apart from Fed speakers - its really going to be all eyes on Turkey to see if they cut more than expected given Erdogan's obsession with lower rates despite elevated inflation. Geopolitical wise - lots of focus on the deflationary ripples from Covid-19, as well as what kind of stimulus (magnitude, time, where) is going to be coming from China. On the US side, Sat 22 Feb will see the Nevada Caucus.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Ps. Note the Macro Dragon will be on break from back-end of Feb to early Mar – given a long overdue & upcoming spectacular legacy family trip
2020-Feb-17
Macro Dragon: US = Tues, Flash PMIs, Inflation & Turkey Rate Cuts Week
Top of Mind…
- To get the full menu of wk 8, check out our Friday piece, Global Markets: Lucky 8, As We Look Into Next WK
- In nutshell; we got the US out until Tues due to President’s Day, flash PMIs & inflation themes on the econ data side. And a few EM central banks, with Turkey potentially likely to surprise with bigger than expected cuts given Erdogan distaste to high interest rates, regardless of where inflation is. The continued focus on Covid-19 could see some fatigue, with markets more concerned on magnitude, timing & type of China fiscal stimulus. Whilst things are just heating up in the next leg of the US democratic election process, with the Nevada caucus up for grabs on Sat 22 Feb.
- The biggest near-term date on the US political time-line, is really Super Tuesday – the Mar 3 where we should finally see Bloomberg in full swing (albeit he may still show in Nevada 22 or South Carolina 29 – been running heavy on ad campaigns).
- What a lot of people have not yet realized, is this is going to be an exceptional Super Tues from previous years, because we also have California joining the schedule (it used to be on the backend of the itinerary). So up until Super Tues, the delegate representation will be c. 4%, yet on Super Tues itself, its well over 1/3.This will be the largest one-day nomination of the entire democratic primaries.
- Basically by end of first wk of Mar, we are likely to see the backs of Biden, Warren & Klobuchar… possibly even Buttigieg (have to see how he does out of his sweet base of IO & NH). At this point in time – early days – KVP thinks it likely eventually come down to Sanders vs. Bloomberg. With the Holy Grail being whichever of the two picks Buttigieg as VP, even though Klobuchar also could work.
On The Radar Today…
(All times are SGT)
- NZ visitor arrivals came in a 1% vs. -0.9% previously
- JP Flash GDP -1.0%e +0.4%p, Revised IP
- EZ: Monthly Buba report
- UK: Home prices
- US: Out on
TrumpPresident’s Day
For Tues key readings are likely to be RBA minutes, Ger ZEW survey, CA mfg. Sales & US Empire State mfg. readings.
-
It is going to be a phenomenal week, wishing everyone the very best possible.
Namaste,
KVP
Ps. Note the Macro Dragon will be on break from back-end of Feb to early Mar – given a long overdue & upcoming spectacular legacy family trip
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)