Macro Monday Week 40: Impeachment Investigation Implications...

Macro Monday WK 40: Impeachment Investigation Implications…

2019-Sep-30

A  replay of the call is available HERE

TGIM & Happy Macro Monday everyone, welcome to WK 40 – the end of 3Q = start of 4Q, we are almost there & bear in mind Dec is never a full month. So really just 10wks to take things to the next lever across the  board…

So this week’s focus is likely to be around: Impeachment Storm, China’s 70^th Anniversary, Rate decisions out of India & Australia, Final PMIs & of course US ISM / NFP / AHE   

Wishing everyone a healthy, phenomenal, smooth, profitable & bell-curve setting start to the 4Q!

Namaste

-KVP

**

Summary of Prior Week:

• Geo Politics: Pelosi, could hold back no longer – Dems, formally launched an impeachment investigation of Trump around the calls with Ukraine’s president & potential corruption linked to the Biden family
  
  Econ: Flash PMIs cont to show us, no respite coming out of the EZ – especially Ger. RBNZ & BoT left rates unchanged as per cons., whilst also in-line with cons we saw 25bp cuts out of the PH & MX

• FI: Tighter for the wk (again), USTs, Bunds & JGBS at 1.68%, -0.57% & -0.24%

• FX: DXY’s ascent cont, with highest weekly close since Jul 2017 at over 99.0 & +0.49% for the wk. The almighty dollar seems unstoppable

• CMD: A week that belonged to the softs for the bulls, whilst the bears capitalized on pullbacks in energy, precious metals as well as iron ore, nickel & aluminum

• EQ: Generally red across the global, with India being the one solid outperformer, still high off of recent stimulus measures. Peloton IPOed, yet closed down -13% at 25.24 from the 29.00 strike. Meanwhile AB Inbev priced at HKD 27.0 & should start trading today in HK under 1876

• Vol: Back to back wk with vol tick higher as we do +12.4% to 17.22 on the VIX, interestingly seeing a slight pullback on the MOVE (a bond volatility indicator)

   

  COT Report: [@Ole_S_Hansen]

• Back to back increases on USD Net-longs, this now taking into account the FOMC meeting, post a +22% two wks back we continued with a +13% increase to $17.5bn ($15.5bn)

• The net-shorts continued on the kiwi cross, yet big reversal in yen net-longs -46% to c. 13K contracts, as well as CAD net-longs -77% to c. 5K contracts

• Going on 3wks of continued exposure on  net-longs on commodities,

Week Ahead

Key Focus:

• Final PMIs  | US ISM-NFP-AHE | End of 3Q | Impeachment Show | China 70^th Anniversary
• Central Banks (SGT):

• RBA 0.75% e 1.00%p (1) RBI 4.00% e/p (4)
• [Yet cuts expected across the repurchase rate & the reverse repo rate from the RBI] 

Fed Speakers (SGT):

• Evans, Clarida, Bowmin, Barkin, Harker, Quarles, Mester, Kaplan, Rosengren (4), Bostic, Powell, George (7), Kashkari

Other (SGT):

• Lowe (1) China out for Golden Week (Oct 1 to Oct 8), GER Hol (Thu 3)

Econ Data:

• US: Chicago PMI, Mfg. PMI 51.0e/p, ISM mfg. 50.4e 49.1p, Serv. PMI 50.9e/p, ISM Non-Mfg. 55.1e 56.4p, ADP, Factory Orders, NFP 140k e 130k p, AHE 3.2%e/p
• CH: Mfg. PMI 49.6e 49.5p, Non-Mfg. 53.9e 53.8p, Caixin Mfg. PMI 50.2e 50.4p
• EZ: Mfg. PMI 45.6e/p, GER Mfg. PMI 41.4e/p, Serv. PMI 52.0e/p, GER Serv. PMI 52.5e/p, PPI RS, Flash CPI
• JP: RS, BoJ Mins, Tankan Index, Mfg. PMI 49.3e 48.9p
• UK: Final GDP, CA, Mfg. PMI 47.0e 47.4p. Serv. PMI 50.3e 50.6p
• NZ: Building Consents, Business Confidence., Milk Auction
• AU: Building Approvals, TB, RS
• CA: House Prices, GDP, Mfg. PMI 49.1p, TB, Ivey PMI 62.6e 60.6p

Global Macro Reflections | Manifestations: Potential implications of impeachment investigations

No clear near-term market impact (to KVP at least), yes it creates more noise & uncertainty… yet not too surprising given it is Trump

It’s worth noting that Pelosi has been hesitant about the democrats pursuing an impeachment investigation of Trump

Yet, her hand & voice were finally forced last week

We now have increased probability that Trump will get more erratic (more pressure on him) & volatile – this likely increases the probability of:

• Trump running a Tariffs Campaign for his 2020 Election Strategy
  • Trump is not likely to seek a lasting deal with China. With a ‘Tariff Man’ & a ‘strong patriotic “USA” image’ he will likely control more of the political airwaves & headlines

     

• There will be an increased likelihood of military conflict abroad…
  • Depending on how under pressure he gets, & how much focus he needs to divert from the domestic & election agenda, as well as how the underlying US economy is doing in early 2020
  • It worth noting very much to Trump’s credit, that he is a lot more reticent about getting the US even more entangled in foreign conflicts

     

• The impeachment investigation, whilst potentially catapulting Joe Biden back as the sole real democratic nominee, will suck the air out of the room overall on the Dems 2020 campaign
  • i.e. one more big distraction & Trump gets way more clicks than “sleepy joe”

     

• This likely averts what would have been a potential -20% to -30% pullback in US Equities if there was a chance of Warren or Sanders sitting in the White House
  • Biden is considered way more pro-business than MMT advocates Sander & Warren. It should be noted that Warren has been climbing the polls of late

     

• This new “witch hunt” as Trump calls it, is only going to motivate & empower his base more. At the end of the day, it’s the most motivated electoral base that gets out there to vote. And this likely ups the ante on the motivation behind Trumps’ base. The key risk to the Dems is that Biden’s base may not be as motivated as Warren’s or Sanders’

   

• An impeachment investigation & proceedings will take months, & in the event that Trump is found guilty of impeachment, the republicans control the senate (53 / 100) – so they could sweep it under the rug & choose to do nothing. This is a big part of the reason why a lot of the democrats have been so reluctant to go down this path
  • You need 2/3 majority in the Senate to be convicted on the grounds of impeachment
  • Just to give you context of how rare this is, there has only been three previous instances of US presidents coming under impeachment proceedings:

   Andrew Johnson who was impeached in 1868, Richard Nixon who resigned during the process & Bill Clinton (the original Teflon Don) in 1998 who was acquitted by the, then Democrat-controlled Senate.

• News flows from this will be Trump, Trump, Trump, Biden… Trump, Trump, Trump, Biden…

   

• Still a long way to the Mid Jul 2020, democratic nomination for their presidential candidate. One flipside of all this to be wary of, if Hunter Biden is found to be clearly linked to corruption (which we know was rampant in the previous Ukrainian regime) it could force Joe Biden out of the race, in which case Warren takes nomination & US EQ markets tank

Greater China Focus  – Focus again on Oct 1^st 70^th National Day & Summary of Recent Measures Taken by China over last few quarters. Also focuses on recent rhetoric by US officials to potentially restrict CH companies from listing in the US. US listed Chinese company have been under pressure lately

Chartography & Price Action

• We take a look at the DXY making ever new highs, as we had our first weekly close above 99.00 since mid-2017

• At the same time the pullback bond yields in the last two wks has not been fully reflected in precious metals

• Meanwhile despite the news flow & concerns on global growth decelerating, almost all major global equity indices are up in double digits YTD in USD terms!!!