Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Weekly market recap and what's ahead - 24 to 28 February 2025
Koen Hoorelbeke
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: This article provides a weekly market recap and outlook, covering key market trends, earnings, macro events, and asset performance, while highlighting major drivers from the past week and key risks for the week ahead.
Weekly market recap and what's ahead
24 to 28 February 2025
Key Takeaways
- Equities: Tech selloff deepened as Nvidia (-8.5%) dragged AI stocks; Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China rattled sentiment.
- Volatility: VIX spiked 10.6% midweek but eased as markets stabilized into Friday.
- Digital Assets: Bitcoin fell to $79.5K (-5.9%), with $800M liquidations; Trump’s crypto reserve announcement sparked a rebound.
- Fixed Income: US 10-year yield fell to 4.22%, pricing in Fed cuts amid trade fears.
- Commodities: Gold corrected to $2,856 as USD strength pressured metals; oil slumped below $69 on trade war concerns.
- Currencies: USD surged on Trump’s tariff threats; EUR, CAD, and JPY weakened against the greenback.
Market Recap (24 to 28 February 2025)
Equities
US equities sold off midweek as Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were reaffirmed, with additional 10% tariffs on China announced. The Nasdaq 100 (-2.7%) had its worst session in months as Nvidia (-8.5%) led the decline post-earnings. AI and chip stocks suffered, dragging SOX (-2.1%) lower. Tesla (-8.1%) fell below a $1T market cap, while Palantir (-10.5%) extended losses.
European stocks faced tariff pressure, but the STOXX 50 (+1.5%) climbed late in the week, driven by AB InBev (+8.7%) and Munich RE (+4.8%). Auto stocks (Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes) plunged after Trump’s tariff threats, while defense stocks rallied on proposed €500B EU defense spending.
Asia saw a sharp decline, with the Hang Seng (-3.5%) and China CSI 300 (-0.77%) hit by fresh US restrictions on semiconductors and AI exports. Alibaba (-10.2%) and Baidu (-3.7%) tumbled. However, China’s 50.2 PMI reading hinted at an economic rebound.
Volatility
The VIX surged 10.6% midweek as the AI sector plunged, but settled to 19.63 (-7.1%) by Friday. Nasdaq 100 VIX spiked as Nvidia’s earnings disappointed, though futures rebounded into the weekend.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets collapsed midweek, with Bitcoin (-5.9%) falling to $79.5K and Ethereum (-8.1%) breaking below $2,300. ETF outflows surged, with BlackRock losing $420M in a single session. However, a sharp rally (+20%) on Friday followed Trump’s crypto reserve announcement, including Bitcoin, XRP (+31%), Solana (+15%), and Cardano (+69%).
Fixed Income
US Treasury yields fell sharply amid trade war fears. The 10-year yield hit 4.22%, its lowest level since December, as investors priced in two Fed rate cuts by September. Japanese bond yields rebounded, nearing 1.41% on inflation expectations.
Commodities
- Gold retreated to $2,856, with rising USD strength and profit-taking weighing on metals. Silver dropped to $31.15, extending its selloff.
- Oil prices collapsed, with WTI (-3.5%) falling below $69, despite US sanctions on Iran and OPEC+ delaying output hikes. Demand concerns outweighed supply risks.
Currencies
The USD strengthened as Trump’s trade war threats intensified.
- EUR/USD fell below 1.0400 before rebounding slightly on ECB rate cut speculation.
- CAD slumped, with USDCAD breaking 1.4350, as Canada faces 25% tariffs starting March 4.
- JPY weakened, despite Tokyo’s 2.2% inflation print, as USDJPY tested 151.00 resistance.
Looking Ahead (3 to 7 March 2025)
- Trump’s address to Congress (March 4): Focus on trade war rhetoric and economic policies.
- Tariffs take effect (March 4): Canada, Mexico, and China face new US tariffs—watch global market reaction.
- US Jobs Report (March 7): February payrolls in focus amid growing recession fears.
- Earnings: Broadcom, Costco, Target, Marvell, Zscaler, GitLab.
- Fed Speakers: Bowman, Williams, and Bostic give final remarks before FOMC blackout period.
- Crypto Summit (March 7): Trump to detail US crypto reserve strategy.
This week’s focus remains on trade war risks, economic data, and Fed policy expectations. Market sentiment hinges on Trump’s tariffs and Friday’s jobs report.
For more related content about last week's event, see:
Key stories from the past week
Market Quick Take - 3 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 28 February 2025
Market Quick Take - 27 February 2025
Market Quick Take - 26 February 2025
Market Quick Take - 25 February 2025
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)