A painful path to normalisation

However, fighting inflation is not as straightforward as one might think.  

Although a supply shock has produced the inflation we are experiencing now, the Fed can only limit demand. But even then, it makes sense to intervene with higher interest rates to avoid inflation from rising further. However, higher rates need economic optimism, which is currently being eroded by uncertainty surrounding the energy crisis. Therefore, the strategy of the Fed to focus on interest rate hikes might provoke the yield curve to flatten further or even invert, flagging a recession soon. 

That’s why we believe the Fed will soon need to begin with the runoff of its balance sheet to lift long-dated interest rates. However, it’s critical to acknowledge that in the past, a balance sheet reduction has been synonymous with lower rates in the long term. The best example is the 2018-2019 quantitative tightening (QT): while long-term rates rose initially, as market volatility intensified yields dropped sharply. 

History tells us that central banks are better at controlling the short-end of the yield curve rather than the long-end, as longer-term rates depend on investors' perception of whether the economy can withstand the Fed's tightening path. It won't be different this time around, and the Fed might even need to provoke a recession to get hold of inflation. 

Therefore, our projection is for US Treasury yields to rise across the yield curve in the mid-term, provoking a mild flattening of the yield curve. However, long-term yields might begin to adjust lower not far from the beginning of QT, causing a sudden flattening or even an inversion of the yield curve. 

European bond yields will continue to soar, and sovereign spreads will widen  

In Europe, things are going to get worse before they get better. The energy crisis is putting substantial upward pressure on inflation. Thus, the ECB will not maintain an accommodative stance and will be forced to end stimulus early to begin to hike interest rates as soon as September this year. The ECB is running the risk that if it stays behind the curve compared to the Fed, the euro  might devalue further, bringing even more inflation. 

In the meantime, European countries will look to finance their defence and energy spending by increasing their government bond issuance, adding upward pressure on yields. The big problem is, the ECB will not be there to digest countries’ debt binge as it did in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic causing volatility in the rates market to soar. It will not be unrealistic to see 10-year Bund yields rising to hit our 0.6 percent target while European government spreads widen considerably. 

Besides being politically problematic, a substantial widening of sovereign spreads is also a problem for the central bank's tightening agenda as financial conditions will tighten faster in certain countries than others. We believe the ECB will tolerate such widening until the BPT-Bund spread hits 250bps. At that point, the central bank might need to decide whether to prioritise inflation or growth. 

Fiscal policies at the EU level might help prevent fast widening of sovereign spreads. All EU members share the same energy and defence spending issues, so an EU defence and energy package financed through the issuance of EU joint debt makes sense; it will limit volatility in the European sovereign space, allowing the ECB to focus on inflation. However, as we have learnt during the pandemic, it might take a long time for EU members to reach an agreement, so it’s unlikely that the periphery will benefit from such support during the year's second quarter.  

Corporate bonds are under more stress 

It’s unlikely that the widening of corporate bond spreads has ended. As central banks worldwide begin to hike rates real yields will increase, tightening financial conditions further. Even with deeply negative real yields, we are starting to see several red flags coming from the corporate bond space: widening spreads, choppy primary markets and loss of risk appetite from investors. 

As volatility remains sustained, weaker companies will find it more difficult to access the primary bond market, increasing refinancing risk and the risk for a tantrum.