Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
Commodity weekly: Market jitters on the rise ahead of U.S. elections
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Key points in this update:
- The commodities sector is heading for its first weekly gain in three, supported by strong gains across the energy sector and grains.
- Precious metals gains deflated after gold’s rally to a fresh record high attracted some profit-taking amid USD strength and rising bond yields.
- Financial markets, including commodities, are trading nervously ahead of the 5 November U.S. elections, as the outcome remains too close to call.
- Focus in this update includes gold, crude oil, EU natural gas, palladium, copper, and zinc, as well as cocoa and grains.
The commodities sector was heading for its first weekly gain in three, supported by strong gains across the energy sector and grains, while precious metals gains deflated after gold’s rally to a fresh record high helped attract some profit-taking amid USD strength and rising bond yields, and not least, some profit-taking ahead of a U.S. election which, depending on the outcome, carries major two-way price risks. The industrial metal sector traded lower as the market sought greater clarity and more details from Beijing regarding recent stimulus announcements, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticised the stimulus blitz so far for failing to tackle the most pressing problems of overcapacity and weak domestic demand.
Financial markets are increasingly focusing on the upcoming 5 November U.S. elections, as the outcome remains too close to call. Gold and silver reached fresh highs earlier in the week before encountering another correction attempt, largely influenced by the rising Treasury yields and a strengthening USD. This unusual breakdown in typical market correlations indicates that traders are hedging against a potential 'Red Sweep,' a scenario where Republicans gain control of both the White House and Congress. Such a political shift could lead to an unfunded spending agenda, further increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio and raising long-term fiscal sustainability concerns. Higher government borrowing might result in an oversupply of government bonds, pushing up borrowing costs across the economy. Conversely, the likelihood of a 'Blue Sweep' is lower, suggesting limited spending manoeuvrability under a Harris presidency, which reduces these worries.
Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index, which tracks a basket of 24 major commodities split almost evenly between energy, metals, and agriculture, traded up 1.5% on the week. On a year-to-date basis, the index has returned 5.5%, with the main contributing sectors being precious metals at 34% and softs at 21%, while losses have been concentrated in grains at -16.5% and energy at -4.7%, the latter primarily due to a 35% loss on natural gas.
Gold rally pauses with profit taking emerging ahead of November 5
Gold’s record-breaking rally finally paused after the weight of profit-taking in response to rising bond yields and a stronger dollar saw prices reverse lower. Silver, which in the previous week surged through key resistance-now-support at USD 32.50, also ran into profit-taking after hitting a fresh 12-year high. The precious metals market has witnessed an unprecedented strong uptrend this past year, with gold and silver on a total return basis trading up by 31% and 38%, respectively, with only minor corrections seen so far during this extended rally. Whether that will continue at the same pace increasingly rests on the outcome of the 5 November elections, given what the result, as highlighted above, may do to the outlook for global trade relations, the dollar, government spending, and U.S. debt levels.
Despite the risk of post-election correction based on a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" behaviour, our long-held bullish view on investment metals has not changed, given they are being supported by several drivers, most of which are unlikely to fade away anytime soon. Among others, these include concerns over fiscal instability—not least in the U.S.—safe-haven demand, geopolitical tensions, and de-dollarisation driving strong demand from central banks, as well as China, where investors seek alternatives to rock-bottom savings rates and falling property prices.
While silver needs to hold support at USD 32.50 to avoid another rush of long liquidation, gold will, following the latest USD 153 rally, look for support at USD 2,685, USD 2,666, and ultimately the big one at USD 2,600.
Crude prices have stalled but two-way risks remain
Crude oil futures have settled into a nervous wait-and-see mode, with major two-sided risks keeping prices rangebound for now. Having witnessed a slump below USD 70 last month, followed by an attempt to break above USD 80, Brent crude has settled into a relatively narrow range around USD 75. While the activity points to calm markets, plenty of risks continue to build, which could see the price once again test either of the two mentioned boundaries.
Besides a potential small positive impact of Chinese stimulus on demand, the main short-term upside risk to prices remains related to developments in the Middle East, and not least the impact of an expected Israeli attack on Iran in retaliation for the 1 October missile strike. Meanwhile, the downside risks are multiple, with the upcoming U.S. elections increasingly becoming a binary event that may impact risk appetite across markets. In addition to demand concerns, the market also has to deal with the prospect of OPEC+ adding currently unwanted barrels back into the market from December.While copper consolidates, zinc attract some attention
HG Copper continues to find support around USD 4.30 per pound, a relatively robust performance during a week that has seen the China stimulus focus fade while the dollar strengthened amid increased focus on the U.S. election. Our bullish long-term view remains unchanged, with solid demand, especially towards the energy transition, potentially creating a shortfall amid miners struggling to increase supply due to higher input prices, lower ore grades, climate change, and rising regulatory costs and government intervention. Overall, the uptrend from the 2020 pandemic low looks well-established, and it would require a weekly close below USD 4 to change that.Instead of copper, it was zinc that stole most of the attention after data showed a large accumulation of stocks on the London Metal Exchange. The metal, primarily used for galvanisation, which involves coating steel or iron to prevent rusting, briefly surged to a 20-month high following a string of recent disruptions. Further fuelling the rally was data from the LME showing one party holding more than 50% of the available stock, raising concerns about a squeeze, something the London Metal Market has witnessed on several occasions in recent years.
European natural gas prices reach a fresh high for the year
European natural gas reached a fresh high for the year near EUR 43 per MWh or USD 13.65 per MMBtu—in other words, European consumers pay 5.5 times more for their gas compared with those in the U.S.—with outages in Norway, Europe’s top supplier, and several geopolitical risks more than offsetting weak industrial demand. The prospect of a mild start to November also keeps demand for heating capped. Storage sites across the region are 95.3% full, versus 98.6% for this time last year.
Heading into winter, traders will worry about competition for LNG from Asia, not least the 1 January expiry of a contract governing flows via the Russia-to-Ukraine pipeline, which is crucial for eastern and central Europe, particularly Slovakia and Austria. Given the current circumstances, the deal is unlikely to be renewed in its current form, potentially reducing Russia’s share of natural gas to Europe further from the current 20%, which is down from around 45% before Russia’s attack on Ukraine strained trading relations between Europe and Russia.
Palladium jumps on Russian sanctions proposal
In response to Russia’s war against Ukraine and the sanctions from the West, palladium, a metal under pressure for months, rose strongly after the U.S. asked G7 allies to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium. Russia, along with South Africa, accounts for 70-80% of the world’s palladium output, making any disruption to Russian supply a potential concern. However, this is somewhat mitigated by the current weakness across the global internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle industry amid an economic slowdown and the industry’s transition to electric vehicles. While a sustained positive price impact is questionable, given that significant action may further pressure the auto sector, short-term support has come from speculators reducing a long-held short position following the technical breakout through resistance-now-support at USD 1,125 per tonne.
Grain exports surge, easing supply pressure from bumper U.S. harvest
A surge in U.S. export sales helped support a weekly bounce in corn and soybeans, two major crops recently pressured by the prospect of a bumper U.S. harvest, and uncertainty over the outcome of the 5 November U.S. election. Corn led the way after the USDA reported 4.2 million tonnes of American corn sold last week, the most in a single week since May 2021. This was driven by demand from buyers taking advantage of low prices to re-stock ahead of the election, which may lead to trade disruptions or policy changes. Overall, the Bloomberg Grains Subindex trades down 16.5% on the year and is by far the worst-performing sector amid an overhang of supply of key crops, which, despite pockets of weather-related trouble, has seen back-to-back strong production years.
Cocoa price decline comes too late to affect Christmas
Cocoa prices have fallen to a March low at USD 6,750, as the main season harvest gets underway in Ivory Coast, thereby improving a tight supply situation which earlier this year saw prices temporarily spike above USD 12,000 per tonne. So far, arrivals of beans to ports have exceeded last year’s, highlighting an improved supply outlook following a period of beneficial rain.
In addition, a one-year delay in implementing the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) may ease supply concerns for EU importers, who were facing increased expenses from verifying deforestation-free supply, while the delay reduces the short-term risk of cutting off supply from non-compliant regions.
However, the price drop has probably arrived too late to lower prices for the high-demand season ahead of Christmas and New Year. While Easter chocolates may be less expensive next year, the chocolate we consume this Christmas will likely be pricier than last year. Despite the prospect of an improved harvest, the shortfall from the previous two harvests will take time to rectify, if at all possible. This is evident in the futures market, which is pricing cocoa next December at around USD 5,200 per tonne—some 23% below the current price, but still more than double the long-term average.
Recent commodity articles:
23 Oct 2024: Crude prices stalled by two-sided market risks
22 Oct 2024: Gold and silver's remarkable run in four charts
22 Oct 2024: Podcast: The Trump trade enters the metal market
21 Oct 2024: COT: Dollar shorts squeezed; Shift in commodity exposure from energy to metals
18 Oct 2024: Commodity weekly: Gold's record-breaking run continues
17 Oct 2024: Copper prices decline amid doubts about China stimulus impact
16 Oct 2024: How high can gold and silver rally?
8 Oct 2024: Podcast: Navigating market shifts: Fed rate cuts, commodities and rising food prices
8 Oct 2024: Video: These commodities might be impacted by the US election
7 Oct 2024: Crude oil surge caps strong four-week rally for commodities
7 Oct 2024: COT: Broad buying momentum persists, led by Brent, copper and grains
2 Oct 2024: Q3 2024 Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
30 Sept 2024: COT: Fed and PBOC trigger largest weeklyl surge in commodities demand in a decade
27 Sept 2024: Commodity weekly: Industrial metals gain strength during a week of crude weakness
26 Sept 2024: Crude prices drop again as Saudi and Libya supply concerns grow
24 Sept 2024: Fed and PBOC add momentum to commodities market rebound
23 Sept 2024: COT: Dollar short reduced; Investment metals see strong demand ahead of FOMC
20 Sept 2024: Commodity weekly: Commodities boosted by bumper rate cut
20 Sept 2024 Video: Gold or silver, which metal will perform the best
17 Sept 2024: With gold reaching new heights, silver shows potential
16 Sept 2024: COT: Record short Brent and gas oil positions add upside risks to energy
11 Sept 2024: Crude slumps amid technical selling and recession fears
10 Sept 2024: US Election: will gold win in all scenarios
9 Sept 2024: COT: Crude long cut to 12-year low; Dollar short more than doubling
5 Sept 2024: Can gold overcome the 'September curse'?
4 Sept 2024: Wheat rises on European crop worries
3 Sept 2024: Chinese economic woes drag down crude oil and copper
2 Sept 2024: COT: Commodities see broad demand as the USD slumps to a net short
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