Gold and silver rally as soft US data fuels market optimism

Gold and silver rally as soft US data fuels market optimism

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points

  • Gold and silver receiving a fresh boost after softer US CPI and retail sales brought relief
  • Silver reached an 11-year closing high on Wednesday, just ahead of key resistance in the USD 30 area
  • Focus on central banks and whether their political motivation to buy bullion lifts their willingness to pay record prices

Gold and silver received a fresh boost on Wednesday as a softer US April CPI brought relief after three consecutive months of upside surprises that helped reduce US interest rate cut expectations. Furthermore, the US economy is showing signs of a slowdown, with weaker data including lower GDP growth, contractionary PMIs, and subdued consumer confidence leading to softer retail sales, all supporting a relatively dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

While gold trades near a one-month high, the main action was seen in silver reaching an 11 year closing high on Wednesday, and platinum which has broken higher after a year of sideways action. Both being supported by surging industrial metals, not least copper which has been squeezed higher after hedge funds and physical traders got caught holding short positions in the COMEX futures market. The combination of sticky inflation, note the so-called super core metric remains stuck near 5% while the 6-month annualised core CPI is at 4%, and economic data softness will likely continue to support precious metals demand.

Once the rate cut cycle eventually begins later this year, gold will likely see renewed demand from ETF investors, many of whom, have been net sellers since 2022 when the interest rate cycle started, a process that helped lift the cost of holding non-interest paying gold relatively to US T-bills which currently offers a 12-month return above 5%.

We maintain our positive outlook for investment metals with the below drivers still the focus:

  • Geopolitical risks related to Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East still playing a supporting role
  • Strong retail demand in China amid the desire to park money in a sector seen as relatively immune to a struggling economy and property woes and the outside risk of the Yuan devaluing.
  • Continued central bank demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and de-dollarisation, and not least gold’s ability to offer a level of security and stability that other assets may not provide.
  • Rising debt-to-GDP ratios among major economies, not least in the US, raising some concerns about the quality of debt. In other words, rising Treasury yields are not necessarily negative for gold as they raise the focus on overall debt levels and the sustainability of those.
  • In addition, the focus is changing from the negative impact of lower rate cut expectations towards support from a reaccelerating inflation outlook.

Gold has throughout the latest and once again shallow consolidation phase managed to hold above technical levels which otherwise could have triggered long liquidation from managed money accounts, currently holding an elevated speculative long in the futures market.

Source: Saxo

While the buy-on-dip interest will support the gold market, the question is whether the current momentum is strong enough to force prices higher to a fresh record. We believe some patience is called for, not least considering the investors may need more time to adjust and adapt to current high price levels. This includes central banks, major buyers since 2022 and whether their political motivation to buy bullion lifts their willingness to pay record prices. In addition, it is also worth keeping an eye on silver which potential could create fresh tailwind on a break above the USD 30 area.

Silver has, just like gold, gone through a month-long period of consolidation before a surging industrial metal sector supported the latest bounce back towards an absolute key area of resistance between USD 29.85 and USD 30.00. Having already recorded the highest close in 11 years, a break could potentially set in motion an additional reaction from momentum following funds, currently holding a relatively small net long futures position. The gold-silver ratio, which measures the relative strength between the two metals, trades below 81 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold, down from a January peak above 92, yet still above support at 78.50 and not least 76.

Source: Saxo
Examples of gold and silver related ETFs and mining companies

Recent commodity articles:

15 May 2024: Copper soars to record high, platinum breaks out
14 May 2024: COT: Crude long slump; grain purchases surge
8 May 2024: 
Fund selling exacerbates softening crude outlook
8 May 2024: 
Grains see bumpy start to 2024 crop year
6 May 2024: 
COT: Commodities correction spurs muted selling response
3 May 2024: 
Commodity weekly: Grains boost, correction in softs and energy
2 May 2024: 
Copper's momentum-fueled rally halts amid weakening fundamentals
29 April 2024: 
COT: Gold bulls stand firm despite recent correction
26 April 2024: 
Commodity weekly: Sticky inflation and adverse weather focus
23 April 2024:
 What drives the gold and silver correction ?
22 April 2024: 
COT: Declining momentum may signal shift toward consolidation
19 April 2024: 
Commodity weekly focus on copper, gold, crude and diesel
17 April 2024: 
Copper rally extends to near two year high
16 April 2024: 
Crude oil's risk premium ebbs and flows
15 April 2024:
COT: Hedge funds propel multiple commodities positions beyond one-year highs
12 April 2024: 
Gold and silver surge at odds with other market developments
10 April 2024: 
Record breaking gold highlights silver and platinum's potential
8 April 2024:
COT: Speculative interest in metals and energy gain momentum
5 April 2024: 
Commodity market sees broad gains, enjoying best week in nine months 
4 April 2024: 
What's next as gold reaches USD 2,300
3 April 2024: 
Q2 Outlook: Is the correction over?
3 April 2024: 
Cocoa: A 50% farmgate price boost a step in the right direction
2 Apr 2024:
COT: Gold and crude longs maintained amid strong underlying support


Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited
19th Floor
Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower
12 Queen’s Road Central
Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.