Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Imagine this: By the time you've finished reading this article, your electric car would already be fully charged, ready to comfortably cruise from Brussels to Paris. It might sound like science fiction, but it's precisely what China's electric vehicle giant, BYD, has achieved—transforming how quickly electric vehicles recharge, and reshaping the competitive landscape of the global car market.
But does this groundbreaking innovation signal BYD’s readiness to overtake Tesla, and what could it mean for investors hoping to navigate the electric vehicle revolution? Let’s take a short journey through BYD’s remarkable rise—and explore what's on the road ahead.
BYD recently announced its strongest-ever financial performance, with fourth-quarter profits soaring an impressive 73% to reach a record USD 2.1 billion, supported by robust vehicle sales. Revenues surged 53% to USD 38 billion in the same period, taking the company's total annual revenue beyond the significant milestone of USD 107 billion, comfortably overtaking Tesla’s USD 97.7 billion.
While these results were strong, it's worth noting that higher government subsidies accounted for a meaningful portion of BYD’s overall profit. Additionally, administrative expenses and taxes rose notably, raising some questions among investors about the sustainability of future profitability levels. Still, the company remains financially robust, with a significantly improved cash position—demonstrating strong financial health and the capacity to support future growth.
Central to BYD’s recent success is its groundbreaking new battery-charging technology, capable of delivering 400 kilometres of range in just five minutes—about the time you’re spending with this article. By comparison, Tesla’s fastest chargers offer roughly 275 kilometres of range in around 15 minutes. This isn’t an incremental improvement; it’s revolutionary, directly addressing one of consumers' biggest barriers to EV adoption: lengthy charging times.
Investors have taken notice of the development. Reflecting the enthusiasm, BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares have surged more than 50% this year, recently touching all-time highs, vastly outperforming Tesla, whose shares have fallen about 31% year-to-date. This extraordinary stock performance underscores investor excitement about BYD’s revolutionary tech and its potential to reshape the electric vehicle landscape entirely. Despite its strong recent performance, the stock still appears attractively priced relative to its historical valuation levels.
Historically, Chinese EV makers, including BYD, engaged in aggressive price wars to quickly capture market share. But BYD is shifting gears strategically, moving away from relentless price-cutting towards a more sustainable model focused on innovation and technological superiority.
This pivot signals maturity—one that should comfort investors looking for sustainable profitability rather than mere sales growth. By positioning itself through innovation rather than price alone, BYD sets itself up for longer-term market resilience and stronger margins.
While BYD now leads Tesla in annual revenue, Tesla still enjoys a significantly higher market capitalisation (USD 800 billion compared to BYD’s USD 157 billion). Investors remain captivated by Elon Musk’s ambitious vision, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics.
But Tesla’s dominance is increasingly challenged. Recent sales slowdowns in key markets, especially China and Europe, have exposed vulnerabilities stemming from ageing vehicle models and intensifying competition from rivals like BYD. Additionally, Tesla’s brand image has faced headwinds in Europe and the US, partly due to CEO Elon Musk's controversial statements and political involvement, negatively affecting consumer perception and potentially contributing to weaker sales performance.
Meanwhile, BYD’s sales soared to a remarkable 4.27 million vehicles last year, making it China’s undisputed automotive leader, surpassing even global giants like Volkswagen.
Crucially, BYD has a clear advantage through its diversified strategy, offering both electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Strong demand for hybrids in China provides BYD additional flexibility and resilience—something Tesla lacks, given its purely electric approach. BYD’s strategy is proving effective at home and abroad—positioning itself perfectly between affordability, innovation, and ambition, whereas Tesla struggles with slowing momentum and rising competition.
BYD isn’t just winning domestically; it’s rapidly becoming a significant global player. Vehicle exports surged nearly 72% last year, and BYD recently raised almost USD 6 billion to accelerate global expansion, with new factories opening in Thailand, Uzbekistan, and Brazil.
The aggressive expansion is resonating globally: from the busy streets of Bangkok to the sprawling highways of Johannesburg, BYD cars are gaining popularity rapidly. Its combination of high-tech innovation and lower price tags is resonating with global consumers, many of whom previously turned to legacy brands from Europe, Japan, or the United States.
While BYD is clearly gaining momentum, investors need to remain mindful of potential challenges. The Chinese auto market continues to experience intense competition, and the ongoing price war continues to place significant pressure on profit margins industry-wide. Although BYD has maintained profitability through recent volatility, any escalation in price competition could start to erode its financial advantages.
Additionally, global expansion is never straightforward and brings significant challenges. Geopolitical risks present a substantial hurdle, particularly in the United States, where tariffs have kept BYD from entering the passenger car market. In Europe, regulatory scrutiny around Chinese EV subsidies could complicate expansion efforts. Furthermore, managing international growth will require BYD to carefully navigate regulatory landscapes, consumer expectations, and infrastructure limitations. Labour and environmental standards abroad have proven tricky; notably, BYD faced a temporary halt in construction at its Brazilian factory due to labour standard violations. These issues highlight potential risks as BYD grows internationally.
For investors, BYD represents an enticing opportunity driven by strong growth, cutting-edge technology, and international ambition. With solid profitability, rapid innovation, and promising global expansion plans, BYD is undoubtedly one of today’s standout names in the electric vehicle space. Yet meaningful hurdles remain—especially regarding profitability pressures, geopolitical tensions, and complexities in overseas growth. As BYD continues to accelerate, investors face a critical question: can the company sustain its current electrifying momentum, or could the road ahead become increasingly bumpy?
And now, as you finish this article, your car is fully charged. Brussels to Paris awaits. Enjoy your journey!