Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX is finding support at the 0.764 retracement at around 13.022. A bounce over the next couple of days to around 14.057 is not unlikely. However, resistance at 13,655 which is the 0.382 retracement of the past 8 days of sell off and where market gapped the last.
There is no divergence on the RSI indicating lower levels after a correction is likely.
Weekly the gap last week is key. As long as buyers cannot close it bear picture is in play. However, RSI is showing divergence indicating selling pressure is easing.
A daily close below 13,000 bear trend will likely resume and fuel a selling pressure down to 11,556.
EuroStoxx50 seems to bounce before reaching March lows. If the Index moves above 3,550, we could see the rebound extend to around 3,690. If the Index is taking out the low from last week at 3,420 expect the March lows to be penetrated.