Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Rebounding US Indices have broken short term resistance levels. Does the rebound have more legs to go?
S&P 500 closed the gap Friday indicating further upside could be seen to strong resistance at 3,974 possibly at test of 4K.
If sellers manage to take back control and push S&P 500 below 3,820 last week’s low at 3,636.
Keep an eye on traded volume. It was higher than normal Friday but need to keep rising/stay high if short term upwards move in the Index should continue.
RSI still showing negative sentiment and no divergence indicating we are likely to see lower lows on the Index
Nasdaq 100 rebound opened Friday above the resistance at 11,825 and closed just shy of 0.618 retracement at 12,187 which is likely to offer some resistance. If breaking above a test of key resistance at 12,458 is likely. If Nasdaq 100 closes above that level the Index is back in to neutral short-term. The divergence on RSI supports the short-term rebound picture.
If rejected selling pressure is likely to resume. If closing below 11,752 selling could intensify pushing the index to new lows.