Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX25:
Similar to DAX and EuroStoxx50 AEX 25 has bounced to the 0.618 retracement of the sell-off at around 894. Just below the key gap area 901-907.
Key here will also be whether AEX can close the gap are i.e., a close above 907. If it does there is upside potential to 927 strong resistance.
CAC40 has crawled back above 7,300 and is close to test resistance at around 7,370. Which is also the 0.618 retracement of the sell-oof early August.
A daily close above next resistance at around 7,464, which is kind of a Bull/Bear pivot level meaning a close above 7,464 could establish an uptrend that can lift CAC40 further, possibly up to 7,725.
However, the strength indicator RSI is showing negative sentiment and is required to close back above 60 threshold to reverse to positive sentiment.
If CAC40 fails to close above 7,464 and RSI fails to close above 60 the index is likely to resume downtrend. First indication of that scenario to play out would be a daily close below 7,300
SMI20 has bounced strongly, much stronger than the other European markets.
The index is trying to close above the Cloud (shaded area) and if it succeed further upside potential is int eh cards for SMI20
However, the strength indicator RSI is showing negative sentiment and is required to close back above 60 threshold to reverse positive sentiment which would add to the bullish picture
If SMI slides back to close below 11,928 thereby closing the gap another sell-off could hit, with support at around 11,771