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Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - Volatile EURUSD and Dollar Index without direction. GBPUSD breaking bearish?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- EURUSD's volatile movements around key Fibonacci levels and Moving Averages are pivotal in understanding why the cross is directionless on the short-term
EURUSD could be stuck range bound between 1.08 and 1.070 for the foreseeable future with decreasing volatility
- GBP/USD (Cable) is trading below a key support at 1.26 and below the 200 DMA, with a bearish sentiment indicated by the RSI. Closing price today could be crucial for the trend direction
- The Dollar Index is experiencing volatility influenced by conflicting moving averages, with its direction uncertain as it approaches key resistance levels
EURUSD is experiencing considerable volatility, partly due to conflicting signals from its daily moving averages (DMAs). With the 21 DMA rising, the 55 DMA declining, the 100 DMA rising, and the 200 DMA almost flat, the currency pair lacks a clear directional trend across short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives.
Fibonacci retracement levels are key in understanding EURUSD's recent movements:
- In early March, EURUSD reached the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.0970 and then retracted
- It then declined to the 0.50 retracement of the mid-February to mid-March uptrend and the 0.786 retracement of the early March uptrend at 1.0835
- The pair rebounded from 1.0835, approaching the 0.786 retracement at 1.0949 but closed below the 0.618 level at 1.0925
- EURUSD is now testing the 0.618 retracement of the mid-February to mid-March uptrend at 1.0804
A close below 1.0795 could lead to further declines toward the 0.786 level at 1.0756. EURUSD is nearing strong support at the 0.618 retracement around 1.08. A rebound from this level and a break above 1.0945 could signal a resumption of the uptrend, supported by positive sentiment indicated by the RSI.
Conversely, a close below 1.0795, potentially pushing the RSI below 40, would suggest a bearish outlook, possibly targeting the February lows around 1.07
The medium-term weekly chart for EURUSD suggests the formation of a triangle-like pattern, indicating potential decreasing volatility as the pair approaches the apex (where the two lines meet, setting the stage for a breakout
At the time of writing, GBPUSD (Cable) is trading below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and key support level at 1.26, also positioned below the 200-day moving average (DMA).
The RSI indicator is under the 40 threshold, suggesting furhter bearish movement
If GBPUSD closes the day below 1.26, it may lead to further declines towards 1.25.
To counter this bearish trend, GBP/USD needs to close above the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area), specifically above 1.2666, which would signify a potential shift in momentum and a possible trend reversal.
The Dollar Index is experiencing quite a lot of volatility, partly due to the mixed signals from its moving averages. The 21 DMA and 100 DMA are declining, the 55 DMA is on the rise, and the 200 DMA remains nearly flat, illustrating the lack of a clear trend.
The index is nearing a critical resistance level at around 104.24, which is closely aligned with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 104.32. A daily close above these levels could propel the index towards a strong resistance at 105.83, with an intermediate resistance near 104.88.
Should the Dollar Index get rejected at 104.24-104.32 area, it's likely to enter a phase of range-bound trading between 104.25 and 102.55 for an extended period
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