FX Update: Should USDJPY trade above 110.00?

The G-10 rundown

USD – the US dollar seems to continue to default to the strong side, and given all that the Fed has thrown into the punchbowl to weaken it, USD bears should be alarmed until or unless the Fed continues to up the game.

EUR – the EURUSD suffered a bearish reversal, but has yet to follow through lower, even if the chart is tactically bearish as long as we remain below the 1.1150-75 area.

JPY – the yen a recent weakling, but would expect is character to change if the US-China trade deal signing provides a pivot point for general market consolidation – more interesting, potentially, in crosses like CADJPY or NZDJPY than in USDJPY.

GBP – sterling struggling here, with GBPUSD having now cemented its move below 1.3000 and a local pivot around 1.2905 the last level ahead of perhaps the 200-day moving average below 1.2700.

CHF – the franc hasn’t shown any tendency to weaken as equities have flown higher – is that immunity down to the SNB. Meanwhile, this morning, we have EURCHF pressing on the cycl

AUD – the Aussies looks pretty weak here in folding back lower against the US dollar even as the CNY charges higher. The only bullish argument here for the Aussie, outside of hopes for a revival of Chinese demand for its commodities exports, is that insurance payments to cover bushfire damage offset risks to the economy.

CAD – the USDCAD price action looks comfortable above 1.3000 now – next step for bulls is to take the chart out of its neutral status to a more explicitly upside bias, with a rally above 1.3150 helping on that account.

NZD – we are constructive on AUDNZD upside for the medium term – with a lot of wood to chop still in NZDUSD before we can call a structural bearish reversal there, even if 0.6600 looks like local trigger there.

SEK – Swedish home prices rose 5.00% year-on-year, according to a Swedish housing survey this morning, but any gains are unsustainable in the medium term in a bubbly market and after the Riksbank’s policy moves this year – which will be felt with a 9-12 month lag.

NOK – EURNOK slipped above the 200-day moving average and NOKSEK turned tail at recent highs, but NOK bulls don’t have technical reason for concern for bears until challenging above 10.00 in EURNOK.

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