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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Dollar pairs on the move: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD failed once again to close above the 0.382 retracement at 1.0865 and seems to be resuming down trend
RSI rejected at 60 threshold still showing negative sentiment supporting the scenario of resuming downtrend.
A down trend that can take EURUSD down to the strong support at around 1.07
GBPUSD has been rejected at 1.27 resistance and move down to test the support at around 1.2635 seems likely.
The RSI got rejected at the 60 threshold and is still showing negative sentiment supporting a bearish GBPUSD move.
The rising 200 and 100 Daily Moving Averages (DMA) will give some support around 1.25
If GBPUSD could break and close above 1.27, there would be potential to 1.2775 - 1.2825
The RSI got rejected at the 60 threshold and is still showing negative sentiment supporting a bearish GBPUSD move.
The rising 200 and 100 Daily Moving Averages (DMA) will give some support around 1.25
If GBPUSD could break and close above 1.27, there would be potential to 1.2775 - 1.2825
USDCAD keeps climbing higher bouncing from the lower rising trendline and from the 200 DMA. Currently above the 100 DMA.
A bullish move to the upper rising trendline and the resistance at 1.3618 which is within few cents of the 0.618 retracement at 1.3625. A close above could quite likely push USDCAD higher towards the 0.786 retracement at 1.3745
A daily close below 1.3440 will demolish the bullish scenario. Early warning for that scenario to play out would be a close below the lower rising trend line
A bullish move to the upper rising trendline and the resistance at 1.3618 which is within few cents of the 0.618 retracement at 1.3625. A close above could quite likely push USDCAD higher towards the 0.786 retracement at 1.3745
A daily close below 1.3440 will demolish the bullish scenario. Early warning for that scenario to play out would be a close below the lower rising trend line
AUDUSD closed yesterday below 0.6520 thus resuming bear trend. RSI is showing negative sentiment and is about to break back below the 40 threshold which will further confirming the bearish scenario.
A bearish scenario that can take AUDUSD to 0.64. The Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern potential can still unfold
NZDUSD has been rejected at the 0.50 retracement at 0.6204, failing to close above 0.62 (and rejected at the Cloud – shaded area).
Massive selling this morning has pushed the pair down to the 100 Daily Moving Average.
RSI already showing negative sentiment has been rejected at the 60-threshold confirming that NZDUSD is likely resuming bearish trend.
A move down to test key strong support at 0.6050 seems likely.
A break below could further fuel a sell-off down to 0.60, possibly lower. A close below 0.60 could extend the bearish move down to around 0.59-0.5875.
How to read and understand the technical indicators and how I use them follow the link below:
Volume
Moving Averages
RSI
Ichimoku Cloud
Technical analysis studies and indicators
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