Quarterly Outlook
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John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: Alibaba reports earnings today, and with implied volatility at 52%, options premiums are elevated. For investors already holding BABA shares, a covered strangle offers a way to generate 2.7% yield in +/- 30 days by selling high-priced options while managing risk through well-chosen strikes and expiries.
Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) reports earnings today after the bell, and the options market is pricing in a significant move. The stock recently traded around $126–$127, and with implied volatility at 52% (94th percentile), options premiums are rich.
For investors who already own BABA shares, this creates an opportunity to collect extra income by selling high-priced options. One such strategy is a covered strangle, which allows investors to monetize volatility while maintaining exposure to the stock.
BABA has surged in recent weeks, climbing from under $100 to its current range. The upcoming earnings event has fueled uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options.
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.
A covered strangle involves selling an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put while holding shares. It generates immediate premium income but comes with potential obligations: selling shares if the stock rises or buying additional shares if it falls.
Trade structure:
With BABA at $126, this equates to a 2.7% return in ~30 days.
For this trade, we selected strikes well outside the expected move (+/- $8) and with an expiry approximately one month away. With the rich premium, you have the flexibility to choose strikes closer or further from the current price. You can also opt for a shorter expiry, such as this Friday. Shorter expiries leave less time for the stock to move in or out of your chosen range, which increases risk. Similarly, collecting more premium by moving strikes closer to the stock price means taking on greater assignment risk.
This strategy benefits from a stable or moderate stock move, while risks arise if BABA moves sharply in either direction.
Both options expire worthless. You keep the full $3.35 per share premium as profit.
The call option is exercised, and you sell your shares at $150, locking in gains (plus keeping the $3.35 premium).
The put is exercised, and you must buy more shares at $110. Your effective cost basis is $106.65 ($110 strike minus the $3.35 premium). This is a discount from today’s price but increases your position size.
For investors wanting a different exposure, here are two alternatives:
With Alibaba’s earnings today, high implied volatility creates an attractive setup for income generation. The covered strangle offers a strong 2.7% yield in one month, with clear risk management. For investors already holding BABA, this can be an effective way to extract additional return while remaining in the trade.
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