Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access all our platforms from a single account.
Technical Update - Top formations in Gold and Silver. How low will they go? Bottom and reversal indications for Gold/Silver ratio
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Double top patterns confirmed for Gold and Silver but downside could be limited
- Bottom and reversal pattern close to being confirmed in the Gold/Silver ratio
Gold XAUUSD was rejected at the minor resistance at around 2,384. That level is the 0.382 retracement of the early May uptrend (red lines).
Gold sold off down below key support at around 2,314, establishing a downtrend (lower lows and lower highs). However, the RSI is still showing positive sentiment and is required to close below the 40 threshold to switch to negative sentiment.
If Gold closes below support at around 2,277 and RSI closes below 40, there is likely further downside for gold.
In case that bearish scenario plays out—where Gold is closing below 2,277—a double top-like pattern has been confirmed.
It is not the most perfect pattern, however, which can degrade the performance potential, suggesting a bearish move is likely to be limited to around the 2,222–2,195 support area.
In that area, the 1.382 projection of the double top at 2,211 lies. The rising 100 daily moving average will add to the support strength in that region. For Gold to resume its bullish trend, a daily close above 2,388 is required
Silver XAGUSD formed a double top-like pattern in May, but with the strong bounce in early June, it seemed like it was cancelling it.
However, with the sellers taking back control the past few days, the double top scenario seems to be playing out. Short-term bearish trend is established, but RSI has not yet confirmed with a close below the 40 threshold.
However, Silver could still very well sell off down to the 0.618 retracement at 28.50, the same level as the 1.382 projection of last week’s bounce (red Fibonacci levels). The rising 55 daily moving average will give some support around that lev
If the strength indicator RSI closes below 40, there is likely further downside potential for Silver to 27.75–27.40.
For Silver to resume uptrend, a daily close above 31.55 is required. That scenario should not be ruled out completely as the RSI is still showing positive sentiment with no divergence, indicating a new peak above 32.52 is still in the cards
The Gold/Silver XAUXAG ratio seems to be forming an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder bottom and reversal pattern.
A daily close above 79.20 will confirm the reversal pattern and is likely to fuel a rally to at least the 1.382 projection at 81.66 with upside potential to 1.618, or even to the 1.764 projection at 83.20 and 84.15 respectively.
A close below the right shoulder at 75.60 will demolish the pattern and XAUXAG will resume its downtrend.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment but also divergence, suggesting the downtrend has exhausted and Gold/Silver is likely to rebound higher.
An RSI close above 60 will further confirm a bullish move for the ratio
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...