Weekly FX Chartbook: Election Volatility and Tech Earnings Take Centre Stage
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Key points:
- USD: Biden’s withdrawal will bring dollar’s focus back on fundamentals
- JPY: BOJ rate hike bets and Fed’s rate cut, along with strategic intervention risks, could bring more gains
- GBP: UK’s political stability will be highlighted once again with US political risks escalating
- CAD: Another BOC rate cut could put CAD on the backfoot
- CNH: No sense of relief from reversal of Trump trades, as economic slowdown remains in focus
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Recent FX articles and podcasts:
- 16 Jul: JPY: Trump Trade Could Bring More Weakness
- 11 Jul: AUD and GBP: Potential winners of cyclical US dollar weakness
- 3 Jul: Yuan vs. Yen vs. Franc: Shifting Carry Trade Strategies
- 2 Jul: Quarterly Outlook: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
- 26 Jun: AUD, CAD: Inflation Rising, Can Central Banks Stay on Pause?
- 21 Jun: JPY: Three-Way Pressure Piling Up
- 20 Jun: CNH: China Authorities Loosening their Grip, But Devaluation Unlikely
- 19 Jun: CHF: Temporary Haven Flows Unlikely to Fuel SNB Rate Cut
- 18 Jun: GBP: UK CPI Details and Elections Will Keep BOE on Hold
- 13 Jun: BOJ Preview: Tapering and Rate Hike Talk Not Enough to Boost JPY
- 10 Jun: EUR: Election jitters and ECB rate cut add to downside pressures
Recent Macro articles and podcasts:
- 22 Jul: Biden Out, Harris In: Markets Reassess US Presidential Race and the Trump Trade
- 8 Jul: Macro Podcast: What a French election upset means for the Euro
- 4 Jul: Special Podcast: Quarterly Outlook - Sandcastle economics
- 1 Jul: Macro Podcast: Politics are taking over macro
- 28 Jun: UK Elections: Markets May Be Too Complacent
- 24 Jun: Macro Podcast: Is it time to diversify your portfolio?
- 12 Jun: France Election Turmoil: European Equities Amidst the Upheaval
- 11 Jun: US CPI and Fed Previews: Delays, but Dovish
- 10 Jun: Macro Podcast: Nonfarm payroll shatters expectations - how will the Fed react?
- 3 Jun: Macro Podcast: It is a rate cut week
Weekly FX Chartbooks:
- 15 Jul: Weekly FX Chartbook: September Rate Cuts and the Rising Trump Trade
- 8 Jul: Weekly FX Chartbook: Focus Shifting Back to Rate Cuts
- 1 Jul: Weekly FX Chartbook: Politics Still the Key Theme in Markets
- 24 Jun: Weekly FX Chartbook: US Presidential Debate is the Big Market Unknown
- 10 Jun: Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI and FOMC dot plot have a low dovish bar
- 3 Jun: Weekly FX Chartbook: ECB and Bank of Canada likely to cut rates
FX 101 Series: