Morning Brew March 11 2024

Good morning,

On the 12^th I will be travelling and not writing the Morning Brew, watch out for the US CPI!

Please be aware of the US Daylight savings time the was implemented today, the US is only 5 Hours ahead. Equities open at 14:30 CET, FX Options Expire at 15:00 and economic data releases are shifted by one hour from the European perspective. This lasts until Mach 31^st.

What a day we had Friday

The US labor data was a mixed bag, the headline nonfarm number beat expectations significantly, but all other data points came disappointing. The Headline was 275k against an expectation of 200k but the last month’s data was corrected 120k lower from 353k to 229k, the Jobless Rate was 3.9% vs 3.7% expected and earnings rose less than expected. Especially the frequent revisions raise the questions if this metrics would really be used to steer the largest economy in the world…

The second significant event was a massive selloff in Nvidia – possibly option related or simple profit taking but the shares rose from 926 on Thursday to 974 and then dropped 99 USD to 875 in what should be the largest loss of market cap in a single day ever if I am not wrong.  

The US 500closed at 5127, the US tech 100 NAS 18037 and the GER40 17760. The Japan 225 at 39030.
UBS rose to above 27 and is trading at the highest level since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

The 10 Year Yields are at 4.08 and the USD Index 102.72. Gold closed at a record at 2177, Silver is right on resistance at 21.30. Bitcoin is nearly 70k. Especially for Gold and Silver watch out for Ole`s analysis of the Commitment of Traders! Here is the Weekly update: Commodity weekly: Gold and silver steal the limelight

There were quite few comments on X around the Copper requirements to globalize AI, that may support the bullish cause.

EURUSD ended the week 1.0935, GBPUSD 1.2853 and USDJPY 147.13. The Bank of Japan seems to be seriously considering to end the negative Rates regime at this months meeting already.

This week we have the Fed in Lockdown ahead of next weeks FOMC Meeting, this means that there will no comments from US Central bankers until then. The US CPI will be key and the quadruple witching Friday with  Futures and Options running out. Geopolitics remain a hot topic with Ramadan having started.

Many financial instruments are at technically very interesting levels – that alone will make for an interesting week!! 

Monday

- Data  China CPI PPI (Weekend) Japan GDP, Norway CPI.  Turkey unemployment
- Earnings: BNP, Oracle.

Tuesday
- Data Germany HICP, UK Unemployment, US CPI,
- Earnings: Generali, Archer Daniels Midlands,

Wednesday
- Data UK GDP,
- Earnings:, Foxconn. Snam, Geberit, Lennar, VW, Adidas, E.On, Dollar Tree,

Thursday
- Data Sweden CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Initial Jobless Claims, PPI
- Earnings: AiA, Hapag Lloyd, Verbind Adobe, Wheaton PM,. Dollar Tree, RWE, Swiss Life, Rheinmetall

Friday
- Data France & Italy CPI, US Industrial Production
- Earnings: Vonovia, Jabil