Saxo Group
Cyclical stocks play a significant role in the financial markets, reflecting the ups and downs of the broader economy. These stocks tend to rise during economic booms and fall during recessions. For investors, understanding the behaviour of cyclical stocks can be crucial for making strategic decisions, especially in diverse economic climates.
In this guide, we'll examine what cyclical stocks are, identify their different types, and discuss why you might consider adding them to your investment portfolio.
Additionally, we’ll highlight a few key examples of cyclical stocks, not as investment recommendations, but to illustrate the kinds of companies that typically fall into this category.
Cyclical stocks are shares of companies whose performance is closely tied to the overall economic cycle. These stocks typically rise during periods of economic expansion and decline during recessions.
The reason behind this fluctuation is that the products or services these companies offer are often considered non-essential or luxury items—things people are more likely to buy when they have extra disposable income.
Cyclical stocks are often found in industries like automotive, construction, luxury goods, and travel. That's because when the economy is strong, consumers are more likely to purchase new cars, invest in home renovations, and spend on vacations, driving up the revenues and stock prices of companies in these sectors.
Conversely, during economic downturns, these discretionary expenditures are among the first to be cut, leading to a decline in the performance of cyclical stocks.
Cyclical stocks can be categorised into several types based on the industries they belong to. Here are the most common ones:
These stocks represent companies that sell non-essential consumer goods and services. The performance of these companies is closely tied to consumer spending, which tends to increase during economic expansions and decrease during downturns.
Examples:
These companies are involved in sectors like manufacturing, construction, and infrastructure. Their performance typically peaks during periods of economic growth when there is high demand for capital goods and construction projects.
Examples:
While some technology companies are considered stable, those producing consumer electronics or enterprise software often experience cyclical demand. Their revenues can fluctuate significantly based on business and consumer spending.
Examples:
Financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies, are cyclical because their profits are closely tied to economic conditions, particularly interest rates and credit demand.
Examples:
Companies that deal with commodities like oil, gas, and metals often see their performance fluctuate with economic activity. Commodity prices can be susceptible to changes in global demand.
Examples:
These companies provide transportation services like airlines, shipping, and railroads. Their performance is closely linked to economic activity, as demand for transportation rises and falls with the economy.
Examples:
Each of these categories reacts differently to economic cycles. For example, consumer cyclical stocks might offer high returns during economic booms, while industrial cyclical stocks could benefit from increased infrastructure spending.
Investing in cyclical stocks can offer significant opportunities, but it's essential to understand why and when they might be the right choice for your portfolio.
Here are the six reasons to consider investing in them:
Cyclical stocks tend to outperform during periods of economic expansion. As the economy grows, consumer spending increases, driving up the revenues and profits of companies in cyclical industries.
This can – potentially – lead to substantial gains in the stock prices of these companies. For investors who can time the market effectively, cyclical stocks offer the potential for high returns, particularly during the early stages of an economic recovery.
Cyclical stocks typically behave differently from non-cyclical (defensive) stocks, which tend to remain stable regardless of the economic environment.
By diversifying your investments, you can reduce overall portfolio risk and potentially smooth out returns across different market conditions.
Cyclical stocks are often most attractive at the start of an economic recovery. When the economy begins to rebound after a downturn, cyclical stocks are usually among the first to benefit from increased consumer spending and business investment.
Investors who buy cyclical stocks during these periods can benefit from the market's early gains, potentially reaping significant rewards as the recovery continues.
Different cyclical sectors may outperform at various stages of the economic cycle. For example:
Cyclical stocks, particularly those in sectors like commodities and energy, can serve as a hedge against inflation. When prices for goods and services rise, companies in these industries often benefit from increased revenues, which can translate into higher stock prices.
Investing in these types of cyclical stocks can provide a buffer against the effects of inflation on your overall portfolio.
Cyclical stocks can be a valuable addition to a diversified portfolio for investors with a long-term horizon. While they may experience volatility, the overall upward trend of the economy over time means that well-chosen cyclical stocks can have significant long-term growth.
Investors who are patient and can tolerate short-term fluctuations may find cyclical stocks to be a rewarding component of their investment strategy.
It's important to note that the timing of investments in cyclical stocks is an important factor. Buying too late in the economic cycle can expose you to the risk of a downturn, while buying too early can make you wait a long time for returns. As a result, being up to date about economic indicators and market trends is essential.
Additionally, due to their inherent volatility, cyclical stocks are often better suited to investors who are comfortable with taking on higher levels of risk. Proper risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and maintaining a diversified portfolio, are critical to mitigating potential losses. Remember, problems in an individual company, such as indebtedness or poor business performance, can lead to them lagging the overall market regardless of the business cycle.
It's important to distinguish between cyclical and non-cyclical stocks, as they respond differently to economic conditions.
Non-cyclical stocks, also referred to as defensive stocks, are shares in companies that provide essential goods and services that people continue to buy regardless of the economic situation. These include utilities, food, and healthcare products—things that remain in demand no matter what the economy is doing.
Examples of non-cyclical stocks include:
Non-cyclical stocks are typically less volatile than cyclical stocks, making them a stable choice for more conservative investors. They offer protection during economic downturns because their performance doesn't fluctuate as much with the economy's ups and downs. Some non-cyclical stocks are regular dividend payers. However, they may not experience the same level of rapid growth during economic booms as cyclical stocks do.
A balanced portfolio often includes both cyclical and non-cyclical stocks. This mix lets you capture growth during economic expansions through cyclical stocks, while non-cyclical stocks provide stability during downturns. This diversification allows you to build a portfolio that is more resilient to changes in the economic environment.
For example, while your cyclical stocks might drive gains when the economy grows, your non-cyclical stocks can help cushion your portfolio during recessions or slowdowns.
Cyclical stocks offer solid growth potential, especially during economic booms. Since their performance is closely linked to the economy, they're a great option if you're looking to take advantage of market upswings. But with that potential comes volatility, so careful timing and consideration are crucial.
Adding cyclical stocks to your strategy can help you benefit when the economy is on the rise. While non-cyclical stocks bring stability, cyclical stocks can deliver higher returns when times are good. The important factor is understanding where we are in the economic cycle, and adjusting your portfolio accordingly.
For investors willing to accept a bit more risk in exchange for greater rewards, cyclical stocks can be an essential part of a well-rounded investment strategy.
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Head of Commodity Strategy
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Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy