Adam Kinzinger: "I hold Biden accountable for Trump."

Adam Kinzinger shares his insights

One of the key components of investment strategy during global events like the US election and a new president is staying updated on any news developments that could impact the markets.

To mark Trump 2.0’s first month and to provide our clients with unique insights covering the latest updates and changes to global markets, we’ve invited former Republican US Representative Adam Kinzinger to give us his take on the trending news stories.

After two decades in the US Air Force and 12 years as a representative of his home state of Illinois, he became a vocal critic of Donald Trump and was one of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for incitement of insurrection in his second impeachment. He also voted to create, and was subsequently appointed to serve on, the select committee to investigate the 2021 Capitol attack and was pre-emptively pardoned by Joe Biden from future prosecution. After politics, he joined CNN as a senior political commentator and spoke at the Democratic National Convention ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

Who is Adam Kinzinger

Adam Daniel Kinzinger is an American politician, senior political commentator for CNN, and former lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard. A member of the Republican Party, he served as a United States representative from Illinois from 2011 to 2023. After leaving office, he wrote the 2023 book Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty in Our Divided Country with fellow CNN journalist Michael D'Antonio. It captured one of the most transformative periods in recent political history in a personal account from inside Congress, including the January 6 attacks on the US Capitol and his vote to impeach Donald Trump.

This is a transcript of the interview with Adam Kinzinger, which took place on 15 February 2025.

How would you rate Trump 2.0’s first 30 days and what do you expect from his administration in the first 100 days?

Adam Kinzinger: “My prediction right now, I think we're actually seeing the end of what I would call this feeling of momentum from the Trump administration. They went in there, did a lot of stuff really quick. It felt like this is going beyond our ability to keep up. I feel like they're stuttering right now, and you see this in every administration, by the way.”

“Usually it takes a lot longer, but you come in with that momentum eventually stalls and then you end up spending the rest of your term actually responding to things instead of creating things to respond to. I think we're already getting to that point. I mean, recently having the Munich Security Conference and looking back at the conflicting messages and how the world really pushed back hard on that, that puts the administration, regardless of what they like to pretend like they don't care what Europe thinks, that puts them on the back foot. I think we're about to see an administration that now just starts responding to things. Maybe they'll do executive actions to make it look like they're doing something, but those don't really have lasting power.”

“I would give the administration so far, and I will try to say this without having my personal feelings come in, domestically and their agenda in the government, they probably get a B because they came in and did what they wanted to do or have been doing what they wanted to do. I don't agree with it, but nobody thought they would do this obviously because the Democrats weren't ready on foreign policy.”

“A pure F because what we've done is pushed our allies away. We haven't even brought our enemies closer. We shouldn't, but we haven't even done that. We're basically just here throwing grenades because we got a bunch of grenades to throw right now and it doesn't make sense.”

“So I expect that when we look back in 100 days, probably not much is going to change on the foreign policy front with the exception of a small chance the Russian military will have completely stalled by and a small chance that there'd be some deal that would be able. And on the domestic side, I think we'll look at a completely handstrong, completely unable to do anything administration because their majorities in the House and Senate are so tight. I don't think they're going to be able to pass anything they want to.”

Some have suggested a coalition between non-Trump supporting Republicans and the Democrats to defeat Trump. What would you say to that?

Adam Kinzinger: “Look, I think a coalition is essential. It's not just a great idea, it's the only way we're going to win.”

“I spoke to the Democratic National Convention this summer and that's one of the things I opened with is, I'm a member of what I call a sometimes awkward alliance between the sane right, the centre, and the left. And the reality is this: We can disagree on issues. That, right now, honestly is a luxury to basically worry about issue disagreements because I think we're facing real threats to our democracy and our ability to even have a say in the future. So, unfortunately, there are some on the left that just refuse to be in coalition with somebody that has a different viewpoint than them.”

“But I think the vast majority of people on the left and obviously a little bit on the right recognise that we've got to do this together because we bring a lot of intensity, us kind of disaffected Republicans, to this battle. The Democrats, for instance, in the last month or so have been caught flatfooted. They don't know how to oppose this administration. And I frankly think it's the disaffected Republicans, the homeless Republicans, I'll call us, that are actually putting out the best arguments and making the best case.”

“Hopefully, the Democrats pick up and catch their breath, but as of now, they act like they're caught off guard. And we've been warning them for quite a while how bad this guy is.”

After the presidential pardons from both Biden and Trump, how responsible should the previous president feel for this version of Trump?

Adam Kinzinger: “I hold Biden accountable for Trump. I hold Democrats in general, not necessarily all of them, I hold them somewhat accountable. Obviously, it's the Republicans. They made the decision. They've chosen this. But a party in opposition, at least to Donald Trump, has got to put up an effective opposition. I'll even go one above that and say look if you look back six years ago in different election cycles, you can see where Democrats have invested in MAGA Republicans in primaries because they thought that this extreme Republican could actually be easier to beat than a sane Republican. And so you can look back at Democratic money spent to bring the Republican party partially to where it is now.”

“Look back at my situation. I didn't intend to run for Congress again anyway, but I was drawn out of my district by MAGA Republicans? Nope. I was drawn out by Democrats in the middle of fighting on the January 6 committee. So, what message does that send? It's not that, and again, I'm glad I'm out of politics, but the message I think it sends is you stand in front of us and tell us that Donald Trump is a huge threat, but you're investing money in him. You're not taking him seriously and you're seeing this as a winning campaign race. Is that really a threat to democracy? And that's why I think frankly the homeless Republicans have been better at prosecuting this case because we understand you don't flirt with fire. It is not worth investing money in a MAGA candidate so maybe you can win some race over here. No, this is dangerous and this could really spread around the world.”

“And that's what concerns me honestly is that in Canada and Australia, typically conservative movements reflect what happens to conservatism in the United States. And I hope that isn't the case in this case. The cancer has overtaken the body of conservatism. And I hope conservatives generally can keep that out and fight for actual conservative values.”

Do you think what's happening in Germany and…Vance going over there to basically promote I mean the far right do you think that is a look the optics are awful Europe is we are fighting a far-right movement anyone kind of in the centre of politics is struggling. In the UK, we have a Labour government who's struggling to fight those on the far right. what is that saying to the rest of the world when there apparently is negotiations going on with Putin? Europe is fighting an energy crisis and a war, with them and we're being threatened with tariffs and it feels like particularly in the UK, our oldest partner is on the other side of all of these battles.

Adam Kinzinger: “The idea that we're on the other side from Europe and from the UK it pains me because look the US and the UK I think will always still have this relationship but we have a very close relationship right the US and Canada by the way Trump is going after Canada for some freaking reason. But all of that, that's the thing is we have this close relationship and it feels like at this moment JD Vance going over and addressing or meeting with AFD, which is, I mean, let's be honest, apparently, has roots in Nazism regardless of what they feel now. It's certainly not kind of mainstream. I think the message this sends to Europe is, look, I personally think America is still here. We're coming back. We're going through this kind of four-year iteration where we need to get this out of our system. That's what I believe. But if I was Europe, if I was the UK, I'd be taking this moment seriously and saying it is time for Europe and the UK to take their own defence quite seriously. The UK always has, but you could invest more, for instance, in national defence in your navy. you have a very small military compared to historical standards. Germany, for instance, it would be nice if they actually spent 2%. Follow the path of Poland for instance and their special forces. Europe has a massive Europe and the UK particularly when brought together you've got to defend yourself unfortunately. It's a good thing if that ends up happening out of this if Europe stands up for Ukraine for instance because I ultimately think America's going to come back. But unfortunately, you can't rely on it right now.”

You’ve been on Ryan Holiday’s podcast ‘The Daily Stoic’ talking about being a stoic and what qualities make a stoic, responding to when Trump called you ‘Crying Adam’ at the January 6 Committee. As a follower of stoic philosophy during your political and military career, do you think Trump has any stoic qualities?

Adam Kinzinger: “No. No. There's nothing stoic about Trump. He has no control over his emotions. I've never met somebody as theoretically powerful as he is that is so ready to punch down that is so ready to fight down that can get so triggered. They use the term triggered all the time talking about triggering the libs and triggering the left. This guy is so triggered. The fact that I can set him off - a guy that was in Congress for 12 years that's now a former congressman - the fact that I can set him off whenever I want means this is a guy with no control over that.”

“The fact that I couldn't imagine the Stoics sitting down with an evil man like Vladimir Putin and being impressed and having stars in their eyes and being excited they're sitting with them. If I was president of the United States, I'd be sitting with Vladimir Putin "Listen, I own you, just so you know that.” Donald Trump can't do that because he has no confidence in himself. He's still a five-year-old boy trapped in a 78-year-old man's body trying to win his father's approval. And it would be sad except he's damaging the country in the process of that. So there is nothing stoic about him. He may not cry at all. That's simply because he has no soul. But in terms of having feelings and emotions, this guy is ruled by him.”

There has been a lot of speculation about the relationship between Trump and Musk - how do you foresee this relationship playing out? Has there been any talk of infighting yet and do you think it will last?

Adam Kinzinger: “Look, I don't think there's any chance of it blowing again, but maybe I'm wrong. My crystal ball has been broken of late. I didn't predict Donald Trump would win again, but Elon, the idea that he's only going to do this for four months, maybe he takes some step back? Remember, he once put up a poll and said, "Should I step down as CEO of Twitter?" Overwhelmingly, the response was yes and he still is doing his thing. So, I don't know.”

“But there is no way he's going to take his hands out of government. Because, if you're rich, what's the one thing you don't have that you want? Power. If you have power, what's the one thing you want that you don't have? Money.”

“It's like the rich always seek power. The powerful always seek money, and that's what DOGE is. Elon Musk, he's one of these guys with a broken brain that is constantly trying to fill some hole.”

“This is the idea and by the way, this fake department DOGE, it's not even real. The fact that he can go in there and save government all by himself. How much of an arrogant person are you? How high do you have to think of yourself? How high do you have to be to believe that you can fix government all yourself? So, how does this end? It's not likely, but it's possible that Donald Trump needs Elon so much that he tries to maintain that relationship.”

“That would be counter to every relationship Donald Trump has ever had where, if you outshine him, if you come out from under his shadow, you're a threat. And I do think that's going to be what ultimately happens here. Maybe they don't blow up in some rainbow explosion or whatever. But it may happen where they fall apart because Donald Trump doesn't like to be overshadowed. And just a few weeks ago, this picture of Donald Trump sitting at a desk apparently looking subservient to Elon Musk, that's going to grate on Donald Trump for a very long time. If we leaped forward two years from now and looked at the lay of the land, I don't think we'd see Elon and Trump very close.”

Do you think the war in Ukraine will come to an end during this administration and how might the relationship between Trump and Putin impact the potential for a peace process - like the fragile negotiations currently underway in Gaza/Israel?

Adam Kinzinger: “The Russian military is really on its last breath. What we're seeing is they basically cannot maintain offensive combat power. The best they can do is just feed men into this meat grinder and gain almost no territory. They've lost almost a million people; killed, wounded, or missing. And if you think about that, that's twice what the US lost in World War II and they've gained almost no territory. So, for a defending country to win, literally all they have to do is to keep defending themselves.”

“So if Donald Trump comes in and he says, "Hey, I'm going to compel Ukraine”, for instance, “this terrible deal I negotiated on the side with Russia," nobody's going to force Ukraine to do that. Ukraine is a sovereign country. They can say no. My hope then is that Europe steps up. This is where Europe has got to recognise their strength and step up and support Ukraine and say, "We refuse to allow Russia to win in Ukraine."

“Think about the refugee crisis in Europe. Think about the poverty in Ukraine if they're not given security guarantees that allow investment in that country. So, do I think Donald Trump is going to negotiate the final deal? Probably not. I'd be surprised if he did something that was agreeable. He's going to try to make it look like it. But I think more than likely is as long as Europe keeps supplying Ukraine and we are to an extent as well still, Ukraine will be able to, I think, collapse the Russian military and that may be where the end of this comes. I think the war in Ukraine will come to an end, probably within this year, the longest maybe two years.”

Is there a Trump policy you agree with and why do you support it?

Adam Kinzinger: “I don't know. It's tough. I mean, the crazy thing about Trump is he doesn't really have views. He doesn't really have policies. He kind of shifts every day by the moment, whoever speaks to him last. I don't know. I guess in general, we want a more efficient government. I think that's a pretty good thing to stand for. What we don't want is to take a hatchet to it without knowing who we're getting rid of or what functions we're getting rid of. So, look, in the first administration, there were a few more things I would agree with. In this one, it's hard to tell. And particularly when it comes to foreign policy.”

Are there any presidential picks to date that give you any confidence that Trump 2.0 might turn out to be not quite so disastrous as some of us fear?

Adam Kinzinger: “I think he's the direct opposite of where I and frankly most kind of traditional Republicans have stood on America's role in the world and what our role should be with our allies. I think if you're looking for hope that it's not going to be a disaster or as disastrous, it's not going to be for me.”

“There are a few good picks. Let's be clear. Robert C O’Brien is pretty good, right? I know Marco Rubio, and this is a guy that is now saying things and doing things that ten years ago he never would have believed me if I told him he was going to say. For instance, backing, Donald Trump, talking about the role of America and Ukraine should be less. But that's a good pick. But I think most of his picks, they're very clear about one thing, a political agenda. This is not an American first political agenda. It's a nationalist Donald Trump political agenda that's cloaked itself in conservatism and nationalism. So, no, I don't have a lot of confidence in this second Trump administration. I'm hoping that I'm wrong for the sake of the country in the world, but if not, we're just going to continue to stand up and I think we need to paint an alternative vision, remind people what actual conservatism really is, and frankly be ready for the end of the Trump administration.”

How fearful should the UK be of the Trump administration with regards to tariffs and possible global trade war.

Adam Kinzinger: “Donald Trump is trying to appear tough right now. You look at backing down with Mexico. He wants to look like he's getting extra, he's extracting something. He only goes after our allies because it's easy to do. He knows he's not going to start a real war with an ally, right? Canada's not going to attack us. But he's unwilling to really take on Russia, for instance. Americans would be supportive of putting tariffs on China. We understand that China has had really unfair trade practices with us, and this may be a way to fight back on that. Americans are ready to accept that. But it's our allies that I don't think the vast majority of Americans understand why we're fighting.”

“We should be having a great trade agreement with the UK, not talking about how to damage this relationship. The best advice I can give to the UK and Europe is, stand up to this guy. I recognise that there may be disproportionate damage to certain parts of Europe in a trade war with the United States. I don't think it'll go to a full-blown trade war, but with some trade sanctions. But the best advice I can give for Europe is come together, find your areas of strength, and actually fight back. Because the thing I've learned in knowing Donald Trump for a decade, as I have, is that just like Vladimir Putin, he'll continue to advance and to make statements until somebody pushes back on him and then he stops cold.”

“So, I think it's important for Europe to find areas where there is strength to actually fight back in the US, even if it's little things like, banning Kentucky bourbon. Putting significant tariffs on bourbon because that affects red states. There's creative ways to do this as much as I hate to say it, to make Americans feel pain because that's the only way that Donald Trump will back down.”

In an X post, you called Trump "insanely dumb" in response to his claim that the US could pay off its USD 35 trillion debt with crypto. But some ultra-bullish crypto advocates, like Michael Saylor, argue that Bitcoin could reach USD 5 million per coin while other bulls have much higher price predictions.

While the math behind 'paying off' the debt in full might be questionable, do you think there's any scenario where Bitcoin or crypto could play a legitimate role in maybe not eliminating national debt but bringing it back down to what the average person would consider to be "normal" or "manageable" i.e. levels that haven't been seen in decades? Or is this just another example of political fantasy?

Adam Kinzinger: “No, I don't. The reality of it is: is crypto going to play a role? Yes. Is crypto going to end up being the end all be all of all currencies? No, I don't think so. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm old and I just don't understand this enough, but typically there is importance in a government being able to control its own currency in terms of autonomy, interest rates, when to put more cash in, when to pull it out. And the idea that crypto is going to replace that, I just don't see.”

“It will be an important thing probably or some version of Bitcoin, where people can buy and sell and stuff like that. But the idea that that's going to grow and pay off the national debt and not be massively inflationary is just not possible. Look, the US national debt and probably the debt of countries around the world, not in our lifetimes is ever going to get paid off. It just isn't. And the reality is if we wrote a check and paid that off today, we'd end up with 5,000% inflation in this country. So, what's the reality of it? We need to get ourselves in a position where the trajectory of the debt is positive, where we can say, the deficit itself is decreasing. If you do that, you maintain that kind of belief or faith in America's credit and we can borrow as we need to as we're getting our house in order. But the idea that crypto is going to come up and fix the world, it's not. Unless there's something I'm missing.”

In 2016, when Bitcoin was trading for less than USD 1,000, you co-sponsored a bipartisan resolution which stated: "Whereas blockchain technology with the appropriate protections has the potential to fundamentally change the manner in which trust and security are established in online transactions through various potential applications." With Bitcoin now trading around USD 100,000, how have your views on blockchain evolved?

Adam Kinzinger: “No, I don't think it's changed. What I haven't done is kept up on as AI basically is brought up as we have much higher computing power. We have much different interest in blockchain in terms of who's able to monitor, how we're following. A lot of the changes I don't necessarily know because to me I kind of get the theory of it and then I look at where it can be applied and I think there are some great opportunities whether it's government payments, government systems, things like Medicare and Medicaid for instance, reduce fraud in that? How do we ensure that online transactions are safe? How do we ensure blockchain in a way to confirm that the right people are using the right sites and social media and things like that? So I think it has a lot of potential.”

“It's not the area I get deep in because as much as I've tried to program my brain to understand technical stuff, I can't. But on the larger theory, I think it plays a very important role and something we shouldn't look down on because what I've learned in my almost 47 years of living is anywhere an application exists that it works in one place, there's always somebody that's creative enough to come along and figure out how it can work in an area that it's dead needed in that nobody has thought about to date.”