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Bond Bull Rally Delayed: What You Need to Know as Yields Rise
ETFs 5 minutes to read
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Main takeaways:
- Elevated Yields Expected: Trump’s re-election and a resilient economic outlook for 2025 have pushed sovereign yields higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield testing resistance at 4.4%. Stronger-than-expected growth could keep yields elevated and volatile.
- Fed Policy and Economic Indicators to Watch: With steady payroll growth and moderate inflation projections, the Fed may proceed cautiously with rate cuts, potentially "skipping" cuts if job growth remains stable.
- High-Yield and Short-Duration Bonds Favored: To navigate yield volatility, long-term investors should consider high-yield corporate, emerging market, and short-duration Treasuries for income stability and lower duration risk.
Sovereign Yields Surge as Trump Victory Signals a New Economic Chapter
With Trump’s re-election igniting fresh momentum into the U.S. economy, sovereign yields have surged, bringing the 10-year Treasury yield to a critical test of its descending trendline—an important resistance level. A decisive break above this point could signal a shift in market sentiment, prompting investors to recalibrate their expectations for the economic outlook and the trajectory of interest rates.