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Morning Brew August 16 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Calm or nervous day as we are ending a great day for equities?
Good morning,
Equities had a further strong day as the Dow gained 1.39%, the S&P 1.61%, the Nasdaq 2.34%, the GER40 is trading at 18200 and the Japan 225 looks to be on the way to 40k again at now 37800. The us500 surged through the 50day moving average to trade at 5550. Nvidia gained 4%, Tesla 6.3%, Amazon 4.4% Meta 2%. If today remains friendly, it could be one of the best weeks for equities in years.
Walmart reported better results and a strong outlook, this pulled retailers higher, the strong Retail Sales boosted sentiment on the state of the US economy. The expectation shifts to a cut of only 25 basis points cut in September, the %probability is now 70%
10-year yields rose to 3.90 and the USD Index to 102.90 due to the weak yen at 148.95 and EURUSD falling below 1.10 again. Gold and Silver are undecided, gold failed to break the 2480 and is looking for strength for the next attempt, silver initially got a boost as an industrial metal yesterday but then lost steam on higher yields, we are trading at 2453 and 28.16. Bitcoin gained 2.7% over night but remains below 60k at 58100, ETH 2594.
Yen Traders should be careful as political uncertainty about the new prime minister and the path of the BoJ leaves room for volatility.
Today’s agenda is basically empty, either setting us up for a calm or an erratic day, be ready for both.
Event risk remains from the middle East, as the talks on ceasefire extend another day.
Next weeks highlight will be the the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium It is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern. The topic is "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy," will be held Aug. 22-24.
Friday
- Data Japan Tankan, UK Retail Sales, EU Trade Balance, US Housing starts
- Earnings: Adyen
Monday
- Data China Rate Decision, Japan Machine Orders,
- Earnings:
Tuesday
- Data EU Inflation, Turkey rate decision, Canada CPI,
- Earnings: Foxconn, CSL, Home Depot, Sea
Speakers:
Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade Balance
- Earnings:
Speakers:
Thursday
- Data International PMI, US Initial Jobless claims, EU Consumer Confidence, Jackson Hole Summit kicks off
- Earnings:
Friday
- Data Japan CIP Canada Retail Sales, US New Home Sales
- Earnings:
Physically Settled Futures
FCEQ4 will expire on 16/aug 1400 hrs.
MCLU4 will expire on 19/aug 1830 hrs.
OBFQ4 will expire on 16/aug 1400 hrs.
QMU4 will expire on 19/aug 1830 hrs.
WBSU4 will expire on 19/aug 1830 hrs.
CLU4 will expire on 20/aug 1830 hrs