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Morning Brew December 6 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: US Yields Lower - not pushing through to US stocks and FX - but the Dax and the Nikkei
Good Morning
Lots of Surprises yesterday… The JOLTS report surprised tot eh downside and this caused traders to shift rate cur expectations to the front.
Indexes did not move too much with the S&P and the Dow slightly negative, the Nasdaq in the green with 0.3%. The German Dax hit an all-time high despite being overbought on the one and the political mess the government is in on the other. This morning it gave up a little ground on very weak industrial orders at -3.7 vs an expectation of +0.2.
The Nikkei index jumped 2.0% to 33,445.90, posting its biggest daily gains since Nov. 15 after BoJ`s Ryozo Himino said an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy, if done properly, will boost the the economy.
While ten year Yields fell to 4.17%, the USD Index gained to 103.98. EURUSD is 1.0785, GBPUSD 1.2595 and USDJPY 147.07.
Gold and Silver seem to have stabilized at 2027 and 24.27.
We have published our outrageous predicitons for 2024 yesterday:
Check out all of our Outrageous Predictions here:
- With oil at $150, Saudis buy Champions League franchise
- World hit by major health crisis as obesity drugs make people stop exercising
- The end of capitalism in the USA
- Generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis
- Deficit countries form ‘Rome club’ to negotiate trade terms
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr wins the 2024 US presidential election
- Japan’s ‘lucky 7%’ GDP growth rate forces BoJ to abandon yield curve control
- Luxury plunges as EU goes Robin Hood, introducing wealth tax
If you would like to know more about this year’s Outrageous Predictions sign up for SaxoStrats’ webinar or read their views on the investment landscape on our website or platforms.
Today the agenda is fairly calm from now, Bank of Canada will release rates but the expectation is clear with 95% probability for no change. Should the BoC cut rates, it would be a huge surprise.
Volumes remain quite high meaning there is lots of interest among traders let us see where sentiment takes us today.
Events:
Wednesday
- Data Germany Industrial Orders, BoC Rate decision
Thursday
- Data China Trade, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims,
Friday
- Data Japan GDP US Nonfarm Payrolls
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
FBTPZ3 will expire 06 Dec 2023 at 16:00 GMT
FGBLZ3 will expire 06 Dec 2023 at 16:00 GMT
FGBMZ3 will expire 06 Dec 2023 at 16:00 GMT
FGBSZ3 will expire 06 Dec 2023 at 16:00 GMT
FGBXZ3 will expire 06 Dec 2023 at 16:00 GMT
FOATZ3 will expire 06 Dec 2023 at 16:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
GASOILUKDEC23 will expire 08 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT