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Morning Brew February 21 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Heading into the German Election and the last week of Feb
Good morning,
We are coming to the end o f a somewhat strange week in which we saw a lot of fluctuation in single stocks due to earnings while Indexes are overall little changed. You can add different timeframes to the watchlist in Saxo Trader to add 1 Week change of the YTD performance`
Yesterday, a somewhat bleak outlook by Walmart soured sentiment and caused indexes to drop, the Dow gave up 1 %, the S&P 500 0.43% and the Nasdaq 0.47%. The Dax fell to currently 22360. If the worlds largest retailer is not a good sign and worries traders and investors. The company expects earnings of between $2.50 and $2.60 per share in 2026, analyst expectation was $2.77.
Palantir remained under pressure yesterday as traders digested the Pentagons`saving instruction.
Yields are largely unaffected and remain near 4.50 for the 10 year, the USD Index fell to 106.50 with EURUSD 1.0495, GBPUSD 1.2670 and USDJPY 150.40.
Gold hit a new record yesterday before retreating a little, we are currently 2932, Silver hovers around the 33 level is has failed to firmly breach and hold a few times now. If does not break and hold 33 (or 32.96) a retracement is likely.
Key event risk over the weekend is the German election where ethe critical question will be on the possible coalitions. It seems certain the CDU with Friedrich Merz will be the strongest party but how many partners will he have to take on board to reach the 50%. Europe needs Germany to be able to take decisions with regards to EU_US trade relations and with regards to security.
Next week we are looking at the end of February and besides the usual month end moves, tariffs are on the table for March 1st. From March, we will also receive the first Data points after a full month of Trump reign. Next Friday, the PCE will be the first key datapoint he will be held responsible for.
Trade safely!
- Friday: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, international PMI, University of Michigan Sentiment
Earnings Arbor - Monday: German Election outcome, German IFO EU Inflation
- Tuesday DE GDP, US Consumer Confidence,
- Wednesday: AU CPI, Japan Leading Indicator
- Thursday: DE Unemployment, US Durable Goods, GDP, , Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Confidence,
Friday: Japan CPI, UK House prices, CH KOF, US PCE.