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Morning Brew November 7 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Volatility remains
Good Morning,
Friday turned out to be a bit of a crazy day, especially in the FX markets as US labor data came . The Non-Farm Payroll came better than expected but the unemployment rose as well, raising hopes the fed may find room for a dovish December meeting.
In addition, rumors of China winding down Corona measures did the rest, the Dow gained 1.3%, the s6p 1.4% and the Nasdaq 1.3%. The USD Index fell from 113 to 111 and Gold and Silver jumped higher. Gold jumped 3% and seems to have the 1700 in sight, currently 1670. Silver tested the 21. Interestingly rates saw no significant change, the US 10 Year trades between 4.10 and 4.20
GBP had ha very volatile session and is likely the trade for lovers of volatility as the Bank of England and the new government are struggling with recession and inflation at the same time. Cable fell 2% last Thursday after dovish Bank of England comments, but bounced 1.9% Friday.
The GER40 gained almost 500 points on Thursday and Friday, hitting a high above 13500.
This morning there is a little risk averseness or profit-taking as Chinese trade data came in very weak and China also denies loosening corona measures.
What matters this week? The US Midterm election and the US CPI on Thursday will most likely be the events of the week, we are in a very interesting environment where smaller events can have a massive impact. We seem to have huge amounts of cash as well as hopes on the sidelines, ready to jump at any ray of hope to salvage the year.
Headlines:
Twitter laid off a large part of the workforce on Friday and this morning we are hearing reports, Meta may do the same.
China's exports and imports unexpectedly contracted in October, the first simultaneous slump since May 2020. Exports fell by 0.3% against an expectation of +4.3% and imports by 0.7% against an expected rise of 0.1%.
Apple Inc expects lower shipments of high-end iPhone 14 models
U.S. stock futures and commodities slipped in Asia on Monday after Beijing denied it was considering easing its zero COVID-19 policy
Economic data:
Monday: Chinese Trade, DE Industrial Production, CH Forex reserves, EU PMI
Tuesday: Nothing
Wednesday: Japan Trade Balance, China PPI and CPI,
Thursday: US CPI and Labor Data
Friday; DE HICP, UK GDP, Uni of Michigan sentiment
Earnings:
Monday: Westpac Banking, Biontech
Tuesday: NTT, Mitsubishi, Nntendo, Deutsche Post, Mayer, Münchner Rück, Walt Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Constellation Energy
Wednesday: Honda Motor , Manulife Financial, Siemens Healthineers, TC Energy,
Thursday: Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Merck, Tokyo Electron, Engie, Becton Dickinson, AstraZeneca, Brook_eld Asset Management, National Grid, TransDigm
Friday: SoftBank Group, Cie Financiere Richemont