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Morning Brew October 17 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Nervous Times
Good Morning
Once again, my annual leave fall on turbulent times and I hope you are all well and somewhat ok.
We have a complex mix of topics to deal with at the moment
- Israel and the middle east
- China
- US Rates & Economics
- Earnings.
In the short term, markets will be driven by on the situation in Israel and if the situation stabilizes without a major escalation, the steps by China to support the economy and US yields and political woes may well be more important mid term.
If you are looking to trade developments in the middle east, you might consider using options on the classic products like oil, Gold and Silver rather than outright exposure to avoid linear exposure.
In a show of support to Israel and in an attempt to prevent further escalation, US President Biden will travel to Israel tomorrow and also meet with King Abdullah of Jordan, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. German Chancellor Schulz is visiting Israel today.
Our Charu Channa put together a playbook for geopolitical risks : “Dollar remains a buy on dips amid the geopolitical uncertainty, although upside is getting limited. Gold (XAUUSD) could be the safe-haven of choice as decline in real yields also adds to the shine, while CHF and JPY are only getting a limited safety bid. EURCHF has broken below 0.95 and could target 2022 lows of 0.941”
Equities traded friendly yesterday despite rising US Yields, the 10 year rose to 4.75 again. Reason for the optimism was upcoming earnings it seems, Charles Schwab rose 4.7% on better than feared numbers and we are expecting more heavyweights this week: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson, Tesla and Netflix are due this week. US Indexes gained app. 1%.
The USD Index remaind above the 106 at 106.40 now, Gold and Silver are a little lower at 1916 and 22.50.
Bitcoin briefly jumped higher to 30500 on news the SEC had approved an iShares Bitcoin ETF, after news that the statement was incorrect, it fell back to 28150.
Today, be extremely careful as we are expecting a large amount of data, geopolitical news and Fed Speakers.
If you are trading exchange traded options, take a look at our new analytical tools on Saxo Trader Pro: 3D Volatility Chart Probability Envelope Chart
Tuesday
- Data: DE ZEW, US Retail Sales & Industrial Production, CA CPI,
- Earnings Bank of America, Lockheed Martin, GS; Johnson & Johnson, BNY Mellon, Ericsson, Interactive Brokers,
Wednesday
- Data China Retail Sales & GDP, UK CPI, EU HICP, US Housing Starts
- Earnings ASML, P&G, Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp, NASDAQ, Tesla, Alcoa,
Thursday
- Data: AU Unemployment, US Initial Jobless Claims,
- Earnings AT&T American Airlines, TSMC, Nokia,
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, China Rates, UK Retail Sales, .
- Earnings Amex,