Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Gold & Silver sell off exhaustion?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Gold spot XAUUSD is testing 0.764 Fibonacci retracement and $1,850/troy oz support. A correction is not unlikely which could take XAUUSD back to around 1,900-1,920
However, RSI is below 40 threshold and Bollinger bands still expanding indicating we could see lower levels. A move below $1,844 is likely to fuel another sell off. However, a quick dip below support to test and bounce off of rising lower trendline is not unlikely.
Weekly chart the collapse after triangle break out could test both trend lines in the triangle. If Gold breaks below both trend lines and especially the falling one selling pressure could extend below 1,800. However, when you see more than one or sometimes a cluster of Fibonacci levels it indicates strong support/resistance. 1,830 seems to be a strong support combined with the two triangle trend lines.
The price collapse in Silver spot XAGUSD seems to be close to exhaustion. The precious metal is close to $22 support. RSI is at an extreme below 20 and at a level where Silver price several times have bounced off of.
The spike yester yesterday (long lower shadow on the candle) could have been the exhaustive bear move and a correction to around 23.50 over next week or so is not unlikely.
Weekly chart illustrates the strong support area around 22.00-21.60 from where Silver is likely to bounce. However, if it experience a weekly close below thios strong support area the technical rebound picture is totally demolished and reversed
The Gold/Silver ratio XAUXAG has moved 0.618 of the peak to trough distance of the symmetrical Triangle after break out. (the two green arrows are identical in length). The ratio has been rejected at the 0.618 projection at $84. Further set back should be expected. Support at around 81. i.e. 0.382 Fibo retracement of the break out move.
Longer term the Gold/Silver is trading in a broad slightly rising channel. Indicating more upside is not unlikely.
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