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Technical Update - Up to 15% further upside potential in Brent and WTI crude oil but strong resistance close by
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Despite Brent and WTI Crude oil prices already having propelled higher in recent weeks there is still further upside potential. Indicators are suggesting we could see another 5% short-term beforte hitting strong resistance.
Resistance that could be too strong for Bulls to penetrate but if broken there is another 10% upside potential medium-term i.e., next 1-2 months
Brent Crude oil has reached 1.764 projection of the latest correction at 92.81 but can move even higher.
Daily RSI divergence is cancelled after the Indicator has made new high above its peak in August thus indicating likely higher Brent oil prices
There is no resistance until around 98.75. However, corrections should be expected but the uptrend seems strong on both daily and weekly charts.
Weekly RSI has closed back above 60 threshold i.e., showing positive sentiment indicating higher Crude oil levels on the medium-term.
Going in to Autumn and Winter Brent Crude oil could move as high as to the 105.50 level.
For the better part of 2023 Brent has been trading in a range between 87 and 70 USD. After Brent oil broke above the upper range and strong resistance at around 87.63 it could move to around the 105.50 level which is the 87-70 range shifted upwards as illustrated by the two vertical arrows
WTI has reached 1.618 projection of the latest correction at 89.38. In the process the RSI performed a new peak value thus cancelling the divergence on RSI. That is indicating WTI is likely to move higher in coming days and weeks.
Short-term WTI still has approx. 4-5% to go before meeting strong resistance at around 93.50
Medium-term: Weekly RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence indicating higher Crude oil prices are quite likely.
If WTI is closing above 93.48 on the weekly chart WTI will be back above the Cloud suggesting even higher price levels. Similar to Brent Crude oil WTI has broken bullish out of the range between 83.50 and 64. That gives potential to 104-105 as indicated by the two vertical arrows.
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