Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Energy is riding the rotation wave, Sea Ltd raises FY20 outlook
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: The energy sector could be an outperforming sector relative to the global equity market over the coming 12-15 months as mobility activity normalizes and the valuation gap closes which is currently a 49% valuation discount vs the global equity market on 2022 expectations. However, in the long-term we do not see the energy sector as a sector that will deliver the best risk-adjusted returns. We are also looking at the Q3 earnings release from Sea Ltd, the fasting growing e-commerce and gaming company in Southeast Asia, which is seeing revenue doubling from a year ago. However, serious questions are mounting over the business excluding gaming.
The global energy sector has responded aggressively to the news about very effective Covid-19 vaccines from both Pfizer and Moderna, discounting a return to normal energy markets as mobility activity returns to more normal levels in 2021. The global energy sector is up 27% driven by a positive response in crude oil prices and positioning as our recent commodity note talks about.
In a longer and relative perspective to the global equity market the energy sector is still down 60% since the recent relative peak in January 2017. The recent move has closed the relative gap by 17% but there is still long way for energy markets to recover their position in financial markets. The energy sector is only 2.3% of S&P 500 and 5.1% of the global equity market including emerging markets. The move into energy stocks is part of a bigger move in equities from growth and momentum stocks into value and pro-cyclical sectors. The big question is whether this rotation will continue and whether 2021 could become the big comeback year for energy stocks that have suffered from Covid-19 and investors’ souring sentiment on black vs green energy.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...