Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - AEX25, BEL20 and CAC40 struggling at overhead resistance levels
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX25 is testing and at the time of writing seems to be rejected at resistance at 653. If AEX manage to close above, there could be more upside to 670-672. But if AEX slides back and closes below 641 bear trend is set to resume.
RSI is still negative and needs to close above 60 to change that. There is still divergence on RSI indicating AEX could move higher in a correction but 653 needs to be broken
If AEX drops back below 641 RSI is likely to break below 40 and its slightly rising trendline which would be a strong indication of new lows on AEX25.
BEL20 is technically in a short-term uptrend but seems to face some headwind. RSI is till showing negative sentiment and 3,515 is a resistance. If BEL20 can break above 3,515 3,580-3,600 is not unlikely. However, both 100 and 55 SMA is coming down putting a dampener on the upside potential.
If BEL20 closes below 3,440 bear trend is set to resume. There has been no divergence on RSI, and it is still showing negative sentiment. A close above 60 will change that (to positive) and indicate higher levels
If BEL20 closes below 3,440 bear trend is set to resume. There has been no divergence on RSI, and it is still showing negative sentiment. A close above 60 will change that (to positive) and indicate higher levels
CAC40 closed above resistance at 6,040 but seems to struggle to get further upside momentum. A falling trend line and 55 and 100 SMA are coming down and seem to put a lid on the upside.
RSI is still below 60 testing its lower rising trendline. RSI must break either. If closing above 60 sentiment has changed to positive but if RSI breaks below the rising trend line it will indicate CAC40 could drop back to 5,859-5,794. An RSI close below 40 will indicate further downside.
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