Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EuroStoxx50/EU50 and DAX/GER40 uptrends very stretched. When will a correction hit?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EuroStoxx50/ EU50 cfd is trading higher this morning to new all-time high.
RSI is also moving higher and is currently above 80 i.e., in overbought territory, a very stretched uptrend.
However, there is no divergence on RSI indicating higher Index levels and there is no strong resistance levels ahead.
However, a break below the lower rising trend line and a daily close below 4,523 is a strong indication of a correction is unfolding.
If that scenario plays out a correction could take the Index down to around 4,400
EU50 cfd: A break below lower rising trendline adn below 4,517 could be first indications of an unfolding correction. Support at around 4,491 and 4,405
DAX gapped higher right at the opening to spike above 17K but is, at the time of writing, fading. If that scenario is continuing until the end to the trading day the Index could be forming a top and reversal pattern.
If DAX is closing the opening gap and especially if closing below 16,760 a correction is likely to be unfolding.
RSI is at an extreme level not seen in decades (if ever). Being in overbought territory a correction is getting closer and closer.
If DAX is closing below 15,760 there is some support at around 16,528 but a larger correction lower could be in the cards GER40 cfd. If closing below 16,810 a top and reversal pattern has been formed. A bearish beak of lower rising trendline will strongly suggest a correction is unfolding with some support at around 16,530
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