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Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - European stocks pointing lower. EuroStoxx50, DAX, AEX25, BEL20, CAC40 and SMI20
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EuroStoxx50 / EU50 cfd
DAX / GER40 cfd
AEX25 / NETH25 cfd
CAC40 / FRA40 cfd
BEL20/BELG20 cfd
SMI20 / SWISS20 cfd
EuroStoxx50/EU50 cfd was rejected at the upper falling trendline and send back below resistance at around 4,210. Downtrend is still intact and is likely to move lower towards 4,035 possibly down to 3,980 support.
For EuroStoxx50 to reverse the trend a close above 4,335 is needed. If closing above 4,235 it will be in neutral
DAX failed Friday to close above resistance at 15,483. Downtrend is intact and DAX seems likely to slide lower to test support at around 14,933. A close below could fuel a sell-off down to around 14,500-14,400.
For DAX to resume uptrend a close above 16K is needed. A close above 15,575 could fuel a short rally towards 15,750
GER40 closed below key resistnace at 15,517. Downtrend intact .
Support at 14,765 and 14,457
AEX 25/ NETH25 cfd traded last week above the resistance at around 730 only to be rejected at the 55 daily Moving Average. RSI was rejected at the 60 threshold thus still in negative sentiment
AEX seems set for lower levels. A close below 730 is likely to fuel a sell-off down below last week’s low at around 715. 700 could be tested
A close above 750 will demolish the bearish picture BEL20/BELG20 cfd rejected at 3,579/3,571 resistance resuming down and is likely to take out October trough at around 3,445. A bearish move to 3,378 seems likely. Negative sentiment with no divergence on RSI is supporting the bearish scenario
A daily close above 3,575 could fuel a short rally to 3,632 but for BEL 20 resume uptrend a close above 3,730 is needed. The area around 3,650 is a strong resistance area
CAC40/FRA40 cfd didn’t even test the resistance at around 7,204 before sellers took back control closing the gap created 4th October.
Down trend has resumed and CAC40/FRA40 is likely to slide lower to support area at around 6,900-6,800. For CAC to resume to uptrend a close above 7,300 is needed.
SMI20/SWISS20 cfd resuming downtrend and is likely to close the gap i.e., close below 10,873 followed by a move lower.
If closing below 10,749 SMI20/SWISS20 selling pressure could accelerate towards 10,600-10,500 i.e., March lows
To reverse the down trend a close above 11,070 is needed
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