Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Semiconductors struggling to gain upside momentum. Could be caught in wide range
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: The Semiconductor industry is struggling to gain upside momentum. Could this be the time? Strong overhead resistance, though
Semiconductor companies led by Nvidia have been hard hit the past year dragging primarily the Nasdaq Index down with them. But maybe there is a bit of relief for the troubled sector. The iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX:xnas could be close to confirming an uptrend.
After SOXX ETF bounced off the medium-term falling (black) trendline it was rejected at its 200 daily SMA Monday but seems to be trying once again to move higher. RSI is testing the 60 threshold and if it closes above 60 the Strength Indicator has switched to positive sentiment.
A close above resistance at 390.59 will further confirm the uptrend that could lift SOXX to around 423.
If SOXX instead drops back the key support is at around 336. A close below will resume down trend with likely new lows to follow. However, with the daily Moving Averages pointing in each directions SOXX could be range bound between 336 and 391 for some time. 100 and 200 daily SMA's are declining whereas 55 SMA is rising.
A close back below 336 will mean that SOXX is below its weekly 200 SMA. Weekly RSI could very well be back below 40 resulting in new lows for SOXX possibly down to around 250.
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