Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - S&P 500 & US500. Nasdaq 100 & USNAS100. Dow Jones and Russell 2000
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: All US Stock Indices have turned short-term bearish.
S&P 500 closed below 4K and seems set for lower levels. 3,949 level could be a battleground for Bulls and Bears.
Dow Jones broke bearish out of sideways range. Index below the Ichimoku cloud
Nasdaq 100 likely to test key strong support at 11,906.
Russell 2000 back below 1,900 and seems set for further selling pressure.
US500 and USNAS100 cfd levels to look out for
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Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
S&P 500 took out support at 4,015 yesterday to close below 4K. The Index is now technically in a downtrend. However, RSI is still above 40 i.e., showing positive sentiment. If RSI closes below 40 it will be one of those rare instances where RSI turns negative without having shown divergence prior to that. But S&P 500 looks heavy.
However, the 55 Moving Average currently around 3,980 and the 0.50 retracement of the January-February uptrend will offer some support.
Add to that the 200 and 100 Moving Averages between 3,950 and 3,900, and the 0.618 retracement at 3,929. All in all the area around 3,949 could be a battleground for Bulls and Bears.
A daily close below 3,949 is likely to push RSI below 40 i.e., in bearish sentiment and further fueling the selling pressure.
For S&P 500 to resume uptrend a close above 4,160 is needed
The Ichimoku cloud will also provide support around the 0.618 retracement level.
A dip down below 3,949 to touch 3,929 and the cloud followed by a nice bounce could be a likely scenario in the coming week.
US500 cfd If US500 drops below 55 Daily Moving Average there 100 and 200 will provide support around the 0.618 retracement at 3,928.
RSI still above 40 threshold i.e., still showing positive sentiment. As long as it stays above 40 we could see a minor bounce in US500. A test of the previous support now resistnace at around 4,050 is not unlikely.
However, the short-term trend is down and RSI below will further confirm that.
For US500 to reverse the down trend a move above 4,155 is needed.
RSI still above 40 threshold i.e., still showing positive sentiment. As long as it stays above 40 we could see a minor bounce in US500. A test of the previous support now resistnace at around 4,050 is not unlikely.
However, the short-term trend is down and RSI below will further confirm that.
For US500 to reverse the down trend a move above 4,155 is needed.
Nasdaq 100 broke below minor support at 12,166 and is technically in a short-term downtrend. The Index seems to be on course to test key support at 11,906. If closing below 11,906 RSI will reverse the positive sentiment it is currently indicating.
An Index closing below 11,906 is likely to further adding to the selling pressure down to around the 0.618 retracement at around 11,515.
Nasdaq 100 is still well above the cloud (Not shown)
USNAS100 cfd has a confirmed Double Top pattern unfolding with potential target down to 11,657. 200 daily Moving Average around 11,900 will provide some support.
Dow Jones broke bearish out of its very short-term range after being rejected several times a the 34,342 level.
The Index has been showing RSI divergence for weeks and the Indicator is now below 40 i.e., negative sentiment. Dow Jones Is likely to test key strong support at around 32,573.
100 and 200 Moving Averages will add to this support level. A close below 32,573 Dow Jones is likely to drop further to the medium-term falling trendline and support at 31,738
To reverse this bearish trend a close above 34,342 is needed.
Adding to the bearish picture, Dow Jones is now below the Ichimoku cloud.
Russell 2000 closed below key support at around 1,906 and has reversed to a bearish trend. RSI is still positive, however.
We could see Russell 2000 trying to be lifted back above 1,900 but the down trend is intact until a close above 1,963.
A drop to the 0.618 retracement at 1,931 and strong support at around 1,825 is in the cards.
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