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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Outlook - US Industries and Sectors
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Medium-term analysis of some of the main Industries and Sectors in USA. Charts are all weekly time period and ETF’s are being used. This Industry analysis is planned to be updated bi-weekly and/or when there are some interesting developments. This analysis is planned to be with just short comments and explanations with direction and key support and resistance levels.
Semiconductor
Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern is still in the process of unfolding its potential. Still potential target at around 501.
SOXX have had a minor Throw Back i.e., close to test the Neckline after break out.
If SOXX can close above the 434.42 resistance there is upside to 500.
If price closes below the 396 the uptrend has reversed and the Neckline of the S-H-S pattern is very likely to being tested and a close below the Neckline will demolished the upside picture.
Inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern is still in the process of unfolding its potential. Still potential target at around 501.
SOXX have had a minor Throw Back i.e., close to test the Neckline after break out.
If SOXX can close above the 434.42 resistance there is upside to 500.
If price closes below the 396 the uptrend has reversed and the Neckline of the S-H-S pattern is very likely to being tested and a close below the Neckline will demolished the upside picture.
Industrial
Range bound. Testing 55 weekly MA and support at 96.30. Close below likely drop to around 90 i.e., 200 MA. Close above 104.20 likely new highs
Energy
Energy broke below key support at 82.65, below 55 weekly MA and below medium-term rising trendline. Energy could sell off down to around 66.68. However, weekly RSI still above 40 but is likely to break below shortly which will add to the bearish picture.
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas closed below rising trendline breaking bearish out of Symmetrical Triangle like pattern.
Sector is below the 55 Moving Average broke below support at around 125.40 i.e., reversing the uptrend. Currently testing key support at 114.58. A close below is likely to fuel a sell off down to around 90 possibly 73.
To reverse the bearish scenario a close above 141.85 is needed.
Financial
Financials took out several support levels including key support at around 33.19. The Sector now below 200 weekly MA and RSI negative indicating lower levels.
Transportation
Transportation broken bearish out of rising channel pattern. Could test support 211.48. Currently below 55 and 200 weekly MA.
Technology
Broken above medium-term falling trendline and has established an uptrend. After a minor correction the sector is back above 55 weekly Moving Average.
However, RSI has not yet confirmed the uptrend so far failing to close above 60 threshold. If Technology closes below 134.90 uptrend has been reversed and the falling trendline is likely to be tested. A close below the trendline support at around 120 will be next. Uptrend resistance at around 152
Materials
Materials closed last week below 76.66 thus establishing a downtrend. RSI still positive and needs to close below 40 to turn negative. A short term correction to 55 weekly MA could be seen. 200 Ma will offer some support.
Utilities
Dipped below 200 weekly Moving Average to the 0.786 retracement but has managed to close back above 200 MA. If Utilities can close above 68.80 there could be upside to around 72.50-75.00.
A close below the 200 weekly Moving Average is likely to result in Utilities extending downtrend with 2022 lows around 60 as first target.
RSI is showing negative sentiment that could accelerate if RSI breaks back below 40. For Utilities to reverse the downtrend a close above 72.50 is needed with first indication of that scenario to play out would be a close above 68.80
Retail
Below lower rising trendline. RSI is still showing positive sentiment, however, indicating what we are seeing could just be a correction. But if Retail cannot close back above 200 MA the outlook is bearish with a potential move to 55
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