Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Outlook - US Industry trends
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Medium-term analysis of some of the main Industries and Sectors in US. More Industries/Sectors might be added. Requests welcome
Industries covered: Industrial, Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas, Energy, Financial, Materials, Technology, Utilities, Health Care and Retail
This Industry analysis is planned to be updated either weekly or bi-weekly and/or when there are some interesting developments. This analysis is planned to be with just short comments and explanations.
More in-depth analysis of some of the sectors from time to time similar to the Semiconductor analysis published 11th January
Industry/Sector ETF's are being used for all analysis
Industrial
In uptrend. Trading above 55 weekly SMA.
RSI above 60 . A weekly close above 103.31 will add to the bullish picture and Industrials could test all-time highs at 107.88.
To reverse this picture a close below 96.30.
Metals and Mining Industry
Trading above the cloud. A close above 54.91 will confirm uptrend with potential to 65. Resistance at around 57.16.
To reverse the uptrend a close below 48.48
Oil & Gas
Testing lower rising trendline. A close below the trendline would be an indication of a looming downtrend. Down trend confirmed if closing below 114.58.
Energy
Uptrend but massive divergence on RSI indicating the uptrend is weaking. However, if RSI closes above its falling trendline Energy is likely to move higher.
A close below 82.65 and energy is likely to drop to test the rising trendline
Financial
Seems to be in a limbo. A close above 35.97 indicated reversal of the downtrend but RSI haven’t broken above 60. If Financial closes above its 100 weekly SMA and RSI above 60 uptrend is in place confirming the double bottom pattern with potential to around 40.
A close below 33.19 could see the Industry dropping back to test 200 weekly SMA
Materials
Materials has reversed its downtrend and seems ready to move higher. A close above 84 could fuel a move towards previous highs around 90. A close below 76.65 is likely to push Materials to test 200 weekly SMA
Technology
Downtrend seems to be exhausting. RSI divergence and no new lows before it rebounded from 200 weekly SMA.
Divergence on RSI supports the trend exhaustion scenario. Downtrend to resume if Technology closes below 120.80.
Strong overhead resistance. Falling trend line and 55 and 100 weekly SMA’s declining. First indication of a possible trend reversal if it closes above the falling trendline
Downtrend seems to be exhausting. RSI divergence and no new lows before it rebounded from 200 weekly SMA.
Divergence on RSI supports the trend exhaustion scenario. Downtrend to resume if Technology closes below 120.80.
Strong overhead resistance. Falling trend line and 55 and 100 weekly SMA’s declining. First indication of a possible trend reversal if it closes above the falling trendline
Utilities
Range bound between 69 and 72.50. A close below or above those levels for direction. RSI is showing negative sentiment but if Utilities closes above 72.51 that is likely to change.
Health Care
Uptrend but a correction down to around 131-130 seems likely. A close below 128.70 is likely to reverse the bullish picture and Health Care could drop to test key support at around 120.
Retail
Downtrend seems exhaustive with prices forming a Symmetrical triangle like pattern. Break out of the two trendlines will indicate the direction.
Uptrend if closing above 67.55. Down trend to resume if closing below 58.20.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
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