Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Outlook - US Industry trends
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Medium-term analysis of some of the main Industries and Sectors in US. More Industries/Sectors might be added. Requests welcome
Industries covered: Industrial, Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas, Energy, Financial, Materials, Technology, Utilities, Health Care and Retail
This Industry analysis is planned to be updated either weekly or bi-weekly and/or when there are some interesting developments. This analysis is planned to be with just short comments and explanations.
More in-depth analysis of some of the sectors from time to time similar to the Semiconductor analysis published 11th January
Industry/Sector ETF's are being used for all analysis
Industrial
In uptrend. Trading above 55 weekly SMA.
RSI above 60 . A weekly close above 103.31 will add to the bullish picture and Industrials could test all-time highs at 107.88.
To reverse this picture a close below 96.30.
Metals and Mining Industry
Trading above the cloud. A close above 54.91 will confirm uptrend with potential to 65. Resistance at around 57.16.
To reverse the uptrend a close below 48.48
Oil & Gas
Testing lower rising trendline. A close below the trendline would be an indication of a looming downtrend. Down trend confirmed if closing below 114.58.
Energy
Uptrend but massive divergence on RSI indicating the uptrend is weaking. However, if RSI closes above its falling trendline Energy is likely to move higher.
A close below 82.65 and energy is likely to drop to test the rising trendline
Financial
Seems to be in a limbo. A close above 35.97 indicated reversal of the downtrend but RSI haven’t broken above 60. If Financial closes above its 100 weekly SMA and RSI above 60 uptrend is in place confirming the double bottom pattern with potential to around 40.
A close below 33.19 could see the Industry dropping back to test 200 weekly SMA
Materials
Materials has reversed its downtrend and seems ready to move higher. A close above 84 could fuel a move towards previous highs around 90. A close below 76.65 is likely to push Materials to test 200 weekly SMA
Technology
Downtrend seems to be exhausting. RSI divergence and no new lows before it rebounded from 200 weekly SMA.
Divergence on RSI supports the trend exhaustion scenario. Downtrend to resume if Technology closes below 120.80.
Strong overhead resistance. Falling trend line and 55 and 100 weekly SMA’s declining. First indication of a possible trend reversal if it closes above the falling trendline
Downtrend seems to be exhausting. RSI divergence and no new lows before it rebounded from 200 weekly SMA.
Divergence on RSI supports the trend exhaustion scenario. Downtrend to resume if Technology closes below 120.80.
Strong overhead resistance. Falling trend line and 55 and 100 weekly SMA’s declining. First indication of a possible trend reversal if it closes above the falling trendline
Utilities
Range bound between 69 and 72.50. A close below or above those levels for direction. RSI is showing negative sentiment but if Utilities closes above 72.51 that is likely to change.
Health Care
Uptrend but a correction down to around 131-130 seems likely. A close below 128.70 is likely to reverse the bullish picture and Health Care could drop to test key support at around 120.
Retail
Downtrend seems exhaustive with prices forming a Symmetrical triangle like pattern. Break out of the two trendlines will indicate the direction.
Uptrend if closing above 67.55. Down trend to resume if closing below 58.20.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)