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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD could dip to 1.08. GBPUSD testing strong support at 1.2666. USDCHF testing 0.89 strong resistance
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD is hovering around the 0.50 retracement of the February-March bullish move at 1.0838 and may decline further to the significant support and 0.618 retracement at around 1.08.
The Moving Averages are showing conflicting signals, with the 55 Moving Average declining and the 21 and 200 Moving Averages ascending, indicating potential short- to medium-term volatility between 1.08 and 1.09. The RSI's positive sentiment suggests that EURUSD could resume its uptrend after this correction.
If EURUSD closes below 1.08 daily, it could drop to 1.0750. However, a climb back above 1.0830 could signal the resumption of the uptrend
GBPUSD has reached the 0.618 retracement at 1.2666 and might rebound, supported by a positive RSI.
However, if GBPUSD breaks below 1.2660 and below the Cloud (shaede4d area), there's a downside risk to the 0.786 retracement at 1.2600, where the 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages provide strong support.
A move above 1.2755 could indicate an uptrend resumption
However, if GBPUSD breaks below 1.2660 and below the Cloud (shaede4d area), there's a downside risk to the 0.786 retracement at 1.2600, where the 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages provide strong support.
A move above 1.2755 could indicate an uptrend resumption
USDCHF is testing the 0.618 retracement and key resistance at around 0.8896. Breaking above this level could lead to a rally towards 0.90-0.9047, supported by a positive RSI.
If the cross fails to break above - and especially closing above 0.89, USDCHF could retreat to between 0.88 and 0.8750, with strong support at around 0.8740.
If the cross fails to break above - and especially closing above 0.89, USDCHF could retreat to between 0.88 and 0.8750, with strong support at around 0.8740.
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