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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - GBPUSD taking out resistance. EURGBP range bound
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: GBPUSD taking out resistance level but still facing headwind. Is this the last exhaustive move higher?
EURGBP range bound. Medium-term still up but 0.90 seems to be a struggle to break
GBPUSD has taken out resistance at around 1.2445 trading in a steep short-term rising Channel/ Wedge. GBPUSD seems set for a move to next resistance at around 1.2666
That upwards move could be a last exhaustive move higher. Weekly chart 200 and 100 Moving Averages are coming down with the 100 having crossed over the 200 Moving Average also known as a Death Cross which will limit the upside potential. However, a spike up to the 0.618 retracement at around 1,2745 should not be ruled out. And the pair is in an uptrend.
For GBPUSD to reverse the uptrend: Short-term a close below lower rising trend line but there is strong support at around 1.2175. A close below that level could jeopardizer the medium-term uptrend which will be reversed by a close below 1.18
EURGBP is range4 bound between 0.8720 which seems to be a strong support level, and 0.90. EURGBP is trading with lower and lower peaks forming a Descending triangle like pattern (Descending triangles are usually corrective or continuation patterns in an up- or downtrend).
A break below 0.8720 could fuel a sell-off down to around 0.8550. A break of the upper falling trend line is very likely to lift EURGBP to test the 0.90 resistance.
Indicators do not give much guidance at the moment.
Medium-term EURGBP in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. But a close below the lower rising trend line is likely to reverse that picture. Support at around 0.8645.
A break below 0.8720 could fuel a sell-off down to around 0.8550. A break of the upper falling trend line is very likely to lift EURGBP to test the 0.90 resistance.
Indicators do not give much guidance at the moment.
Medium-term EURGBP in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. But a close below the lower rising trend line is likely to reverse that picture. Support at around 0.8645.
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