Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: GBPUSD taking out resistance level but still facing headwind. Is this the last exhaustive move higher?
EURGBP range bound. Medium-term still up but 0.90 seems to be a struggle to break
GBPUSD has taken out resistance at around 1.2445 trading in a steep short-term rising Channel/ Wedge. GBPUSD seems set for a move to next resistance at around 1.2666
That upwards move could be a last exhaustive move higher. Weekly chart 200 and 100 Moving Averages are coming down with the 100 having crossed over the 200 Moving Average also known as a Death Cross which will limit the upside potential. However, a spike up to the 0.618 retracement at around 1,2745 should not be ruled out. And the pair is in an uptrend.
For GBPUSD to reverse the uptrend: Short-term a close below lower rising trend line but there is strong support at around 1.2175. A close below that level could jeopardizer the medium-term uptrend which will be reversed by a close below 1.18