Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY
Across the board JPY pairs have been range bound for the past two weeks. US job report to be released today could push the pairs out of their range
USDJPY seems stuck in a tight range between 144.50 and 146.55. IT has tried to break oput to the upside a couple of times but failed to close above.
A close below 144.50 could lead to a larger correction down to the 0.618 retracement and support at around 141.55
RSI is showing positive sentiment but with divergence indicating break out to b4e to the down side.
EURJPY did close higher 30th August meaning it is still in an uptrend but haven’t been able to follow through.
RSI divergence is indicating break out to be to the downside which could lead to a correction down to around 155.57 support
AUDJPY seems to be trading in a more and more narrow range. Last few weeks between 92.80 and 95.00. Break out needed for direction.
Break out to the upper side there is resistance at around 95.85. Bullish RSI with no divergence is indication that is the likely scenario. If breaking out to the upper side the resistance at around 95.85 is likely to be taken out.
However, a break out will most likely not be with out a struggle. The declining 55 daily Moving Average is acting as a resistance.
GBPJPY range bound between 183.35 and 186.65.
Bearish break out is could fuel a sell-off down to 0.618 retracement and support at around 180.20
A break above 186.65 uptrend set to be extended to strong resistance at around 188.80.