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Technical Update - Rebound time in JPY pairs: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: JPY pairs are rebounding across the board. Question is how much can they rebound with underlying sentiment still being negative
USDJPY has formed a Doji morning bottom and reversal like pattern (not the most textbook perfect pattern) and is close to be testing minor resistance at around 142.85. A close above could further fuel the bounce to the 0.382 retracement at around 144.70
A close above 144.95 and above the 200 DMA could push USDJPY higher towards 146.60-147.50.
The declining 55 and 100 DMA’s will limit the short-term upside potential however.
RSI divergence indicated downtrend exhaustion supporting the rebound picture currently unfolding.
A close below 140.25 is likely to send USDJPY down to around 138 EURJPY seems to be bouncing off the rising 200 DMA. If the pair can hold up a move back to test the resistance at around 158.55 is likely.
Around that the resistance level the declining 55 and 100 DMA’s will add to the resistance strength.
A break below 155 will demolish the rebound scenario and likely sending the EURJPY to test the 153 support
Around that the resistance level the declining 55 and 100 DMA’s will add to the resistance strength.
A break below 155 will demolish the rebound scenario and likely sending the EURJPY to test the 153 support
AUDJPY found support at the lower Cloud (shaded area) just above the 100 DMA
RSI seems to be bouncing from its lower rising trendline. If AUDJPY can close back above the 55 DMA a move to test key resistance at around 97.58 is likelyA close below the Cloud i.e., a close below 95.85 AUDJPY is likely to resume bearish trend with a move towards, and likely below 95.00
GBPJPY seems to be bouncing off the 200 DMA. A bullish move to test the upper falling trendline seems likely. A break above the falling trendline could be seen but the with the declining the 55 and 100 DMA’s upside potential is limited short-term.
If sellers can regain control the support around 178 could come under pressure.
If RSI can hold up above 40 and break above the upper rising trendline there is upside potential for GBPJPY to around 182.50
CHFJPY is in a bit of a limbo. From a trend perspective it has formed an uptrend i.e., higher highs and higher lows but RSI failing to close above 60 threshold has not confirmed a continued bullish scenario.
If CHFJPY can close back above the Cloud and RSI above 60 there is upside potential top November peak around 170.60
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