Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew Augist 16 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Stocks tick higher in the US on Friday as Dax breaches 16000 for the first time ever, the Dow gained 0.04%, the SP5’’ 0.16% and the Nasdaq 0.04%.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was reported at the lowest level since 2011, weakening the USD and giving Gold, Silver and EURUSD some relief.
Weak Chinese data data over night weighs on Asian Equities and Index futures globally, the Industrial output for July was reported at +6.4% y/y 1.4% below expectation and also lower than last month. Retail Sales were released at 8.5% against an expectation of 11.5%.
The USD Index fell to 92.50 after a high on 93.20 last week, Gold and Silver recover to 1772 and 23.55, EURUSD 1.1788 and Cable at 1.3850. 10 Year rates recede to 1.255.
The Taliban took over Kabul in a massive embarrassment to western politicians who spent billions in an attempt to pacify and structure a functioning state.
Bitcoin exceeds 47k, Ethereum also gains 7.8% to trade at 3280.
Retail Sales tomorrow and negotiations around the US infrastructure program and the debt ceiling are likely to dominate the week. Nancy Pelosy is apparently trying to link the two items.
We are approaching the Jackson Hole conference where it is expected that the FED will at least hint very strongly at how rates and tapering are planned to proceed, comments ahead of the meeting can be expected to gauge market sentiment so trade carefully.
Equities remain at extremely high levels and the global stock/GDP ratio has never been as high.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ | Q2 | 0.2% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Annualised | Q2 | 0.7% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim | Q2 | -0.1% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Capital Expend. | Q2 | 1.7% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ External Demand | Q2 | -0.1% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:55 | South Korea | Export Growth Revised | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:55 | South Korea | Import Growth Revised | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | Jul | 11.3% |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | Jul | 7.8% |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | Jul | 11.5% |
16 Aug 2021 | 12:00 | Euro Zone | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | NY Fed Manufacturing | Aug | 29.00 |
16 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Manufacturing Sales MM | Jun | 2.5% |
16 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Wholesale Trade MM | Jun | -2.0% |
10 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Total Social Financing | Jul | 1,700.00B | |
10 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | M2 Money Supply YY | Jul | 8.7% | |
10 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | New Yuan Loans | Jul | 1,200.0B | |
10 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Outstanding Loan Growth | Jul | 12.3% | |
13 Aug 2021 | Brazil | IBC-BR EconomicActivity | Jun | 0.40% | |
17 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant Count Unem Chng | Jul | |
17 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | Jun | 4.8% |
17 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Employment Change | Jun | |
17 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY | Jun | 8.7% |
17 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) | Jun | 7.4% |
17 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Netherlands | GDP Prelim SA QQ | Q2 | |
17 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Netherlands | GDP Prelim NSA YY | Q2 | |
17 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Estimate QQ | Q2 | 2.0% |
17 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Estimate YY | Q2 | 13.7% |
17 Aug 2021 | 14:15 | Canada | House Starts, Annualized | Jul | 275.0k |
17 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Sales MM | Jul | -0.2% |
17 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM | Jul | 0.2% |
17 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Control | Jul | 0.1% |
17 Aug 2021 | 15:15 | United States | Industrial Production MM | Jul | 0.5% |
17 Aug 2021 | 15:15 | United States | Capacity Utilization SA | Jul | 75.7% |
17 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Business Inventories MM | Jun | 0.8% |
17 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | NAHB Housing Market Indx | Aug | 80 |
18 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | PPI - Inputs QQ | Q2 | |
18 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | PPI - Outputs QQ | Q2 | |
18 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders MM | Jun | -2.8% |
18 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders YY | Jun | 15.8% |
18 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Exports YY | Jul | 39.0% |
18 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Imports YY | Jul | 35.1% |
18 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Trade Balance Total Yen | Jul | 202.3B |
18 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index QQ | Q2 | 0.6% |
18 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index YY | Q2 | 1.9% |
18 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | New Zealand | Cash Rate | 18 Aug | 0.50% |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI MM | Jul | 0.3% |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI YY | Jul | 2.3% |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPI MM | Jul | 0.4% |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPI YY | Jul | 3.7% |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPIX YY | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Input Prices MM NSA | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Input Prices YY NSA | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Output Prices MM NSA | Jul | 0.4% |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Output Prices YY NSA | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Core Output MM NSA | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Core Output YY NSA | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | HICP MM | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | HICP YY | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final MM | Jul | -0.1% |
18 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final YY | Jul | 2.2% |
18 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F, E, A, T Final MM | Jul | -0.4% |
18 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY | Jul | 0.7% |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Building Permits: Number | Jul | 1.610M |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Housing Starts Number | Jul | 1.602M |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI Inflation MM | Jul | 0.3% |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI Inflation YY | Jul | 3.4% |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core YY | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core MM | Jul | |
19 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Employment | Jul | -46.2k |
19 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Participation Rate | Jul | 66.0% |
19 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 5.0% |
19 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Norway | Key Policy Rate | 19 Aug | 0.00% |
19 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 14 Aug, w/e | 360k |
19 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Cont Jobless Clm | 7 Aug, w/e | 2.800M |
19 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Philly Fed Business Indx | Aug | 25.0 |
20 Aug 2021 | 01:01 | United Kingdom | GfK Consumer Confidence | Aug | -7 |
20 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Core Nationwide YY | Jul | -0.4% |
20 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Overall Nationwide | Jul | |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Producer Prices MM | Jul | 0.8% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Producer Prices YY | Jul | 9.2% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales MM | Jul | 0.5% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | Jul | 0.3% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales YY | Jul | 6.4% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY | Jul | 5.3% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | GDP Growth | Q2 | |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | GDP Growth Mainland | Q2 | 1.7% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | GDP Month | Jun | |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | GDP Month Mainland | Jun | |
20 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Retail Sales MM | Jun | 4.4% |
20 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM | Jun | 4.4% |
23 Aug 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Mfg PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Services PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Comp PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Consumer Confidence | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Service Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Composite PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Services PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 12:00 | United Kingdom | CBI Trends - Orders | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Existing Home Sales | Jul | 5.85M |
23 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Exist. Home Sales % Chg | Jul | |
23 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | Euro Zone | Consumer Confid. Flash | Aug |
(Refinitiv)
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